HD51 - Rail Passenger Service
Executive Summary: Chapter 966, Section 617.B of the 1994 Virginia Acts of Assembly states that: "$250,000 shall be allocated to the Department of Rail and Public Transportation to conduct a feasibility study for the potential implementation of rail passenger service between Washington, D. C. and Bristol, and/or between Richmond and Bristol." The Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation (DRPT) conducted this study during 1995. The purpose of this study was to: 1. Identify best routes to provide service. 2. Develop several different scenarios of service levels. 3. Project annual ridership for each of the proposed service scenarios. 4. Estimate capital costs, operating costs and revenues for each service scenario. 5. Determine which (if any) of the proposed service scenarios are economically feasible. 6. Recommend the most feasible alternative for additional study. 7. Identify issues and concerns which will require additional detailed analysis. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Routes: The proposed routes include service from Bristol to both Richmond and Washington, D.C. Trains would travel northward from Bristol to Roanoke and then east to Lynchburg. From Lynchburg, one leg would follow the route of Amtrak's Crescent to Washington, D.C. via Charlottesville and Alexandria. The second leg would go east to Richmond by way of Farmville (See Figure 1). All of the proposed routes are on track owned by Norfolk Southern Corporation, with the exception of short segments of CSX railroad connecting to the Richmond stations, and in Alexandria. Stations: The proposed routes include 18 potential station locations, with eight manned and ten unmanned stations. Five of these proposed station locations are presently served by Amtrak (Washington Union Station, Alexandria, Manassas, Culpeper, Charlottesville and Richmond). Lynchburg also currently has Amtrak service, but the existing station is not located on the rail lines that would be used for the proposed Bristol service. In nearly all of the other locations an old passenger station structure still exists, but has been adapted for some other use. The number of stations and their locations are only proposals for consideration and serve as a basis for testing the feasibility of the proposed rail system. The specific station locations will ultimately be determined in close cooperation with local jurisdictions along the corridor. Service Provided: Table 2 outlines the operating alternatives which were considered. Scenario 6 is the recommended alternative. Under this scenario, modern tilt train equipment would operate on existing track without significant infrastructure improvements. Two trains per day would be operated in each direction to all stations in the system. Ridership: Ridership for each of the tested operating scenarios was estimated using a multi-tiered logit model. As shown in Table 4, annual ridership of 520,000 was estimated for the first full year of service, with growth to more than one million annual riders over the twenty year period studied. A significant portion of this ridership would be on trips which cover only a portion of the corridor, (for example, Bristol to Roanoke). Many trips would extend beyond the defined corridor, with some passengers coming from east Tennessee, and others traveling northward beyond Washington, D.C. on Amtrak's Northeast Corridor. Capital Costs: The use of the modern tilt equipment allows trains to travel at a high average speed rate without the need to make major improvements to the rail infrastructure. Capital costs are shown in Table 3. The recommended scenario will require the purchase of four trainsets at a total cost of $41.2 Million. Other identified capital costs include the construction of nine unmanned and two manned stations for $5.8 million, the construction of layover facilities in Bristol and Lynchburg (cost: $3.15 million), and the installation of a connection between Norfolk Southern and CSX lines in Richmond (cost: $3.8 million). The total capital cost for the recommended alternative is estimated to be approximately $54 million. Operating Costs: Operating costs were calculated using actual unit costs experienced by the Virginia Railway Express (VRE), the commuter rail service in Northern Virginia (see Table 6) Railroad access fees were calculated at the current rate that VRE has negotiated with Norfolk Southern. The capital cost of procuring rail equipment was included as an operating expense, with the cost of the vehicles amortized over a fifteen year period. Expenses were estimated using 1994 dollars, and annual operating costs are shown to decrease after 15 years, once the financing costs of the equipment are paid off. The annual operating cost for the first full year of service for the recommended alternative is projected to be $22.3 million (see Table 7). Revenues: Revenues were calculated using the projected ridership figures and assuming an average fare rate of $0.17 per mile, which is Amtrak's current average fare for trips of less than 400 miles. Table 5 shows that annual revenues are estimated to be $17.5 million during the first full year of operation for the preferred service alternative. Annual revenues are estimated to grow to $36.2 million after 20 years as a result in the increase in ridership. The service is projected to operate at a deficit initially, but revenues would grow to match operating expenses in approximately seven years. Over the twenty year period studied, revenues are projected to exceed operating expenses by 4%. Institutional Issues: This preliminary feasibility study did not attempt to analyze the potential conflicts between the proposed passenger service and Norfolk Southern's freight business. It is evident that there will be some conflicts created, and additional capital expenditures may be required to minimize these problems. This issue will need to be analyzed in much greater detail. In addition, issues of compensation, schedule, liability and capital improvements must be negotiated with the railroad. Coordination between freight and passenger services may increase travel times of passenger trains and also affect the hours during which such service can operate. Any significant changes in operation will require a re-analysis of ridership and revenue projections. Station locations and costs identified in this preliminary study are intended to be representative of actual operations. More detailed analysis of each potential location, including projections of demand, needs to be conducted in conjunction with the localities. There may be additions and/or deletions from the list of proposed stations. CONCLUSION This preliminary study has shown that it would be feasible to implement rail passenger service from Bristol to Washington, D.C. and to Richmond. Additional study is necessary to analyze in more detail issues concerning the operation of the proposed service. |
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