HD73 - Virginia's Progress Toward Chesapeake Bay Nutrient Reduction Goals


Executive Summary:
As part of the Chesapeake Bay Agreement of 1987, Virginia committed to achieve a 40 percent reduction of two nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus, entering the main stem of the Bay by the year 2000. The commitment was reaffirmed in 1992 amendments to the Agreement, which also included a commitment to "maintain at least this level of reduction thereafter" and a commitment to develop specific strategies by tributary river to achieve the nutrient reductions.

Nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus are essential as raw materials for organism growth and development, and are present in nature. However, in excess, they have been held to negatively impact water quality in the Bay and its tributaries. Excess nutrients relative to human activity stem from point sources (discharges from specific conveyances, such as sewage treatment plant discharges) and non-point sources (pollutants such as fertilizers which are set in motion by rainfall or snowmelt moving over and through the ground).

The focus of Virginia's efforts to achieve a 40 percent reduction in nutrients to the Bay has been on the Potomac River Basin. Virginia's lower tributary rivers (the James, Rappahannock, and York Rivers) and its coastal shores are also targets for nutrient reductions, but strategies for those waters have been a lesser priority and specific reduction goals have not been finalized. Nutrients in these waters are held to be of concern for the health of the river basins themselves, but not so much for the health of the Bay.

The Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission was directed by Item 14C of the 1996 Appropriation Act to examine the Commonwealth's progress towards meeting the nutrient reduction commitments set forth in the 1992revisions to the 1987Chesapeake Bay Agreement. Because the Potomac strategy currently under development is critical to meeting Bay goals and has been the focus of State strategy efforts to date, the JLARC review focused on this strategy. Pursuant to the mandate, the review focused on "progress" issues - it is not a reassessment of the need for the goal, nor is it a cost study. The study examines: what progress is reported and expected under current levels of effort, what Virginia's Potomac strategy achieves as it is given, problems with accepting the strategy as given, and key issues that will probably impact Virginia's future progress.

The overall conclusion of the report is that Virginia is unlikely to produce a 40 percent reduction in nutrients in its portion of the Potomac by the year 2000, and whether it will produce a 40 percent reduction in the years after 2000 is also in great doubt. There appear to be some unresolved questions at the State and local levels as to the priority or worth that is attached to addressing the Bay's problems. This is reflected in the slow State and local response to the commitment, contrasted to a long-standing knowledge of the types of actions that would be needed to achieve the goal.

More specific findings of the report can be summarized as follows:

• The State's Potomac strategy calls for actions and nutrient reductions beyond existing levels of effort.

• However, estimated nutrient reductions contained in the strategy, accepted at face value, are not projected to result in the 40 percent goal being met by the year 2000, and may be inadequate for meeting the goal even once fully implemented.

• There are also problems with accepting the specific reductions of the strategy at face value, because some assumptions appear questionable.

• The strategy does not address the goal of maintaining a 40 percent reduction after the year 2000, and therefore does not seek to prevent the probable erosion of progress shortly after 2000.

• There are key areas of uncertainty that will need to be considered in the policymaking process for Potomac nutrient reduction.

• The timeframe specified in the Code of Virginia for the lower tributary strategies is at risk of not being met.

Potomac Strategy Provides Basis for Expecting Progress Beyond Current Efforts

The Commonwealth Potomac strategy estimates that annual nitrogen loads decreased by only nine percent from 1985 to 1994, while phosphorus was reduced by about 27 percent. The strategy indicates that expected current efforts through the year 2000 will roughly maintain nitrogen and phosphorus at these 1994 levels. Further, without additional actions beyond expected current efforts, nitrogen loads from Virginia's portion of the Potomac could be substantially greater by the year 2015 than they were in the 1985 baseline year. If the goal of improving the health of the Bay through nutrient reductions is made apriority, there will be a need to take substantial policy actions beyond current levels of effort.

The Commonwealth's strategy does call for actions and reductions that go beyond current levels of effort. The strategy calls for point source actions at many sewage treatment plants that will reduce nitrogen concentration levels. The strategy also calls for heightened implementation of a variety of nonpoint source best management practices (BMPs) to reduce nutrients (for example, better management of fertilizer applications on farms). The estimated costs of these controls, according to the strategy, is between $129 and $167 million, the vast portion of which are point source costs. The strategy thus provides a basis for expecting progress beyond current levels of effort.

Potomac Strategy Does Not Meet Goal by 2000 and May Be Inadequate to Meet the Goal Once Fully Implemented

The Commonwealth's Potomac strategy is not expected, however, to meet the State's commitment to reduce nutrients by 40 percent by the year 2000. Virginia's slow progress in tributary strategy development and in addressing funding issues has contributed to this situation. The Virginia Water Control Board estimated in 1991 that a 7.0 milligrams-per-liter nitrogen concentration would be needed to meet Bay goals. However, since 1991, Virginia has made minimal technologically-based progress in this direction. It is now unlikely that Virginia will achieve the goal, in large measure due to construction schedules for major wastewater treatment plant projects. While the inability of the strategy to achieve the year 2000 goal is not explicitly addressed in the strategy document, the Secretary of Natural Resources has drawn this conclusion in a sentence of a November 1996 report, stating that "it is not realistic to expect that the 40% nutrient reduction goal in the Potomac strategy can be achieved by the year 2000."

Moreover, a JLARC staff analysis of the strategy described in Chapter II of this report indicates that the strategy may be inadequate to produce a 40 percent reduction once fully implemented. The analysis indicates that accepting the strategy as given and fully implemented by the year 2003, nitrogen reductions may peak at 37 percent, and phosphorus reductions may peak at 38 percent, unless sewage treatment plant flow growth diminishes from the rates that have been projected.

Point Source Success Will Be Difficult, and Nonpoint Source Reductions Are Based on Some Questionable Assumptions

There are also concerns with accepting the strategy as given. On the point source side, success may be more difficult to achieve than is indicated in the strategy. Nitrogen concentration issues at several key facilities will need to be resolved in order to be more certain of Virginia's progress. If reductions averaging seven to eight milligrams per liter or less cannot be achieved at the large sewage treatment plants, then the progress suggested by the strategy will be at serious risk. The proposal of a key association for municipal sewage treatment plant agencies may not provide this level of reduction. Further, the reductions calculated in the strategy for one of the major treatment plants will need particular scrutiny. A retrofit to reduce nutrients is not planned for this plant. Nonetheless, strategy projections show nitrogen loads from this plant as less than in the baseline year, despite an approximate tripling of the plant's wastewater flow that is projected from the baseline year.

On the nonpoint source side, there is a concern with the existing calculation framework for nonpoint source reductions. The framework assumes consistently better nutrient management practices by land users. The exclusive focus of the framework on reductions through BMPs means that the potential for land user behaviors that work at counter-purposes is not recognized. For example, some farmers may have reasons to increase rather than decrease fertilizer usage over baseline levels, and this is not captured in the framework, as is indicated in Chapter III of this report. Further, the framework allows for the calculation in some cases of a level of nutrient reduction that exceeds the amount of controllable nutrients.

The individual best management practice percent reductions that are being used in the calculations in Virginia and in other Bay states, as well as the cumulative results of those calculations, need to be systematically and skeptically reviewed. Over time, best management practices have been added, and assumed reduction percentages have changed to some extent, and State actors invested in achieving the reduction goal have had a major role in these changes. As of early December 1996, another revision to these efficiencies had been underway and was to be released soon. However, it was not yet publicly known if the revision would introduce more caution in reduction assumptions.

Potomac Strategy Does Not Address the Goal of Maintaining Reductions Once Achieved

The Commonwealth's strategy does not address the issue of maintaining a 40 percent reduction (Which is referred to as maintaining a nutrient cap). A November 1996 report of the Secretary states that at this point, "the resolution of issues associated with reaching the 400/0 goal itself is so critical that the next major step beyond must wait its turn for a detailed examination."

However, maintaining achieved reductions is likely to be an even more difficult goal than initially obtaining a 40 percent reduction. An analysis of the strategy (again accepted at face value and assumed to be fully implemented) indicates that a peak nitrogen reduction of about 37 percent could erode to 21 percent by the year 2015, and a peak phosphorus reduction of 38 percent could erode to 32 percent by the year 2015. These findings are based on extending sewage treatment plant flow projections. The findings indicate that not long after the year 2000, Virginia may be faced with projections indicating more growth in plant flows, and it may have just completed a systematic, major, and fairly expensive upgrade across plants that is not sufficient to address the emerging problem. The State and local will to take further action on the heels of a major undertaking is questionable.

Thus, it appears that it would be a mistake for policymakers who wish to see Virginia reach and maintain a 40 percent reduction to view looking beyond the year 2000 as a discrete step to be considered later. Decisions made now about long-term capital investments (such as point source upgrades) will have an impact on how much progress is made, and how much progress may be eroded, for some time to come. If there is a strong desire to reach and maintain the goal, then it may be necessary to give some consideration now to "limit of technology" approaches at some key point source plants.

Key Areas of Uncertainty Need to Be Considered in the Policymaking Process

In addition to the concerns with the nonpoint source calculation framework already discussed, there are a number of other areas of uncertainty that will need to be considered as part of the policymaking process. These areas of uncertainty include: the State's priorities, funding and leadership, including State agency attitudes and commitments to the goals; whether all localities in the Basin will support the strategy; what plants will be upgraded and to what concentration levels; point source flow projections; and the extent of land user commitments to achieve the nonpoint source reductions of the strategy.

The Timeframe for the Lower Tributary Strategies Is At Risk

In 1993, the Commonwealth committed to "implement an interim 40 percent reduction strategy" for the lower tributaries by 1997. The Code of Virginia requires strategies by January 1, 1998 for Virginia's tributary rivers other than the Potomac.

During the period since 1993, the executive branch decided on a phased approach to tributary strategy development in Virginia, with attention directed first to the Potomac. Hence, there have been four Potomac nutrient reduction papers since the beginning of 1993, but an initial 1993 paper on the lower tributaries has not been updated. Reasons given for the delay on the lower tributaries have included a lack of staffing, the benefits of the opportunity to learn from a prototype effort, and the desire for monitoring to determine the specific goal before commencing the effort. However, as a consequence, Virginia is in a poor position at this time to complete these strategies. A November 1996 report of the Secretary of Natural Resources now indicates that: "we have concluded that the strategies for those tributaries [the Rappahannock, York and James] cannot be completed in any acceptable fashion by that [statutory January 1, 1998] deadline...."

State leadership will be critical on nutrient reduction issues for the lower tributaries as well. As with the question of maintaining Potomac progress, natural resource leadership in the executive branch appears to have assigned a low priority to this point on the lower tributary effort, rather than to heighten resources or activity levels in order to make greater or more timely progress toward the State's commitments.