HD26 - Offender Population Forecasts FY 2005 to FY 2010


Executive Summary:
Authority for this Report

This report responds to Item 403, Chapter 4, 2004 Act of Assembly, Special Session I (Appropriations Act) which requires the Secretary of Public Safety to "…present revised state and local juvenile and state and local responsibility adult offender population forecasts to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees by October 15, 2004, for each fiscal year through FY 2010 and by October 15, 2005, for each fiscal year through FY 2011."

Purpose

This report documents the annual forecasting process for Virginia's adult and juvenile offender populations. Forecasts of confined correctional populations provide information for budgeting and planning of various criminal justice capital and operational expenditures, and provide data for assessing policy needs. The accuracy of these forecasts can affect the success of planning and resource allocation. Over-projection generally results in needless appropriation of resources to criminal justice institutions, while under-projection can compromise the correctional system's ability to adequately ensure public safety.

Summary of Methodology

Since the late 1980s, the Secretary of Public Safety has annually overseen a process that forecasts the number of adult and juvenile offenders for whom either the State or the localities have responsibility. The forecasting process uses two committees to produce the official forecast: a Technical Advisory Committee that uses statistical methods (time series and/or simulation models) to make projections, and a Policy Advisory Committee that reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population to recommend to the Secretary. The Policy Advisory Committee also considers the effects of any recent trend shifts, and newly adopted legislation on the forecast, making adjustments as it deems appropriate.

Summary of Each Forecast

State Responsible Population Forecast

Between FY 2003 and FY 2004, the SR population grew by 540 offenders, an increase of 1.5%. The SR adult offender population is expected to increase from 35,875 at the end of FY 2004 to 36,971 in FY 2005, a growth of 1,096 or 3.1%. The population is expected to grow to 43,328 in FY 2010, a growth of 6,357, or a 3.2% average yearly increase. The final SR population forecast was produced using the DOC simulation model. No other numerical adjustments or add-ons were made to the population forecast.

Local Responsible Population Forecast

Between FY 2003 and FY 2004 the local responsible (LR) population increased from 16,600 to 17,478 inmates, a growth of 879 or 5%. The LR jail inmate population is expected to increase to 18,081 in FY 2005, a growth of 603 or 3.4%. From FY 2006 to FY 2010, the population is expected to grow to 22,022, a 4.0% average yearly increase. The final LR forecast was produced using a time series model. No numerical adjustments were made to the statistical forecast.

State Responsible Juvenile Population Forecast

The SR juvenile offender population decreased from 1,164 at the end of FY 2003 to 1,038 by the end of FY 2004, a decline of 126 or 10.8%. It is expected to decrease from 1,038 to 1,033 by the end of FY 2005, a decline of 5 or 0.5%. The SR juvenile population is expected to decrease from 1,033 in FY 2005 to 1,010 in FY 2010, a decrease of 23 or an average annual forecasted decline of approximately -0.4%. The decline in FY 2005 is mainly due to a projected decrease in admissions. This forecast is based on a simulation model designed by the DJJ that explicitly models the Department's length of stay system.

Juvenile Detention Home Forecast

The detention home population decreased from 1,214 at the end of FY 2003 to 1,110 in FY 2004, a decrease of 104, or 8.6%. It is expected to decrease to 1,099 by FY 2005, a decrease of 11, or 1.0%. The detention home population is forecasted to decline from 1,099 at the end of FY 2005 to 1,088 in FY 2010. This represents an average decrease of 0.3% per year. The forecast reflects expectations for only marginal changes in detention eligible intake cases and increased use of post-dispositional detention. The final juvenile detention home forecast was produced using a time series model.