RD220 - Annual Report on the Official Consensus Forecast of Virginia General Medicaid, Mental Illness Services, and Mental Health/Mental Retardation Community Services Expenditures


Executive Summary:
[On 01-04-06 the report was replaced by the Department of Planning and Budget so as to include a detailed supplementary Medicaid Report added to the official report]

Total Medicaid expenditures are projected to increase 11.41% (to $4.526 billion) in FY 2006, an additional 8.00% (to $4.888 billion) in FY 2007, and an additional 6.77% (to $5.219 billion) in FY 2008.

Projections in this report include expenditures for General Medicaid, Mental Illness Services, Mental Retardation Waiver, and MHMR State Plan Option Services. The main factors affecting expenditures are:

• Continuing growth in the number of indigent adults and children enrolled in Medicaid. The growth rates in FY 2005 were 24.77% and 8.29%, respectively. The overall growth rate for the Medicaid enrollees was 7.61% in FY 2005, which was significantly higher than the average overall growth rate in the last decade.
• Increases in enrollment and in rates paid to HMOs.
• Increases in federally established Medicare Part B and Part A premiums and significant growth in Part A and Part B population as a result of outreach efforts to identify Medicare eligible recipients.
• Growth in private inpatient hospital costs.
• Increases in the cost per day of nursing facility care.
• Increases in outpatient hospital services costs as well as increases in utilization.
• Growth in utilization of other long-term care services and the reimbursement rate increases.
• Growth in utilization and rates for physician services.
• Historically lower, but moderate growth in pharmacy unit costs and utilization.
• Rate increase in dental services.
• Continuing growth in cost and utilization for mental health clinic services.
• Rate increase in case management services and continuing growth in utilization of MHMR state plan option services.
• Continuing growth in cost and utilization in the MR waiver program.