HD73 - Interim Report: Expanding the Commonwealth of Virginia's Public Transportation System


Executive Summary:
The 2006 State of Virginia Appropriations Act, Item 180, directed that the Virginia Modeling, Analysis and Simulation Center (VMASC) of Old Dominion University (ODU) utilize modeling, simulation, analysis and visualization research methods to study, analyze and make recommendations for optimizing the Commonwealth’s modes of public transportation in the Route 1 corridor of Fairfax County, and surrounding high population density areas, including rail and bus and to provide an interim report on this effort no later than 1 November 2006. VMASC's review of ongoing northern Virginia traffic studies reveals that BRAC recommendations will significantly contribute to automobile traffic in an already congested area while simultaneously reducing public transit options for many impacted employees whose jobs will be relocated to either Fort Belvoir or Quantico.

A number of potential strategies have been identified to mitigate traffic congestion due to BRAC recommendations and by state and local agencies involved in studying and modeling the impacts to the transportation system. Several organizations are utilizing well-accepted, discrete event, longitudinal flow models to model traffic in the northern Virginia transportation network. VMASC can also address the traffic congestion problem from this approach, however, it is not expected that additional support from VMASC along this traditional line of analysis will add significant value to the work already underway.

An area of interest that is not currently being addressed – one where VMASC could make a significant contribution – is modeling High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes in Northern Virginia along the US Route 1 / I-95 Corridor. Accordingly, it is suggested that the Commonwealth Legislature concur with VMASC’s recommendation to shift its analytical focus from “optimizing” a US Route 1 transportation system to modeling and analyzing the feasibility a “HOT lane” alternative for this region.

In addition to the HOT lane modeling proposal, VMASC will also develop a new simulation capability for studying congested traffic areas that incorporates modern simulation methods utilizing human driving behaviors. Traditionally, studies of traffic patterns in highly populated areas relied on generalized traffic behavior patterns to represent driving patterns of regional commuters. This approach is static in nature and does not account for the behavior of commuters when faced with known route delays, destination changes or public transit options available to travelers for getting to various destinations. These traditional traffic models do not incorporate human decision making and behaviors into engineering-level transportation flow models. This makes them ill-suited to modeling and analyzing dynamic, complex decision situations where traffic behavior depends on situational conditions that change over time. To model this type of situation requires a different approach based on adaptive behaviors. This approach will allow state-level decision makers and transportation planners to take a new, comprehensive look at commuter behaviors and traffic patterns. VMASC proposes to develop a simulation that incorporates human behaviors into traffic flow models in order to study how this behavior influences the choice of transportation modes and routes. By incorporating human behaviors into the family of traffic and transportation models, we will be able to more effectively design and implement employ public transportation systems in highly congested, highly populated areas.