RD292 - Annual Report on Offender Population Forecasts (FY2007 - FY2012)


Executive Summary:
In Virginia, forecasts of prisoners confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety oversees the forecasting process and, as required by language in the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

The Secretary of Public Safety utilizes an approach known as “consensus forecasting” to produce and validate the prisoner forecasts. This open, participative forecasting process brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from numerous state agencies across all branches of state government and includes representatives from local government. The process is structured through committees. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the various prisoner forecasts, the Committee as a whole scrutinizes each forecast carefully according to the highest statistical standards. Selected forecasts are recommended by the Technical Advisory Committee for consideration at the next level. The Policy Advisory Committee reviews the recommended forecasts and sets the official forecast for each prisoner population. This Committee also can approve adjustments to the recommended forecasts to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes. Members of the Policy Advisory Committee represent Virginia’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches, prosecutors, and local and state law enforcement agencies. This year, the Secretary expanded the membership by extending invitations to the chairmen of key General Assembly committees.

To facilitate and streamline the exchange of information between the two committees this year, the Secretary established the Policy-Technical Liaison Work Group. Chaired by the Deputy Secretary of Public Safety, Work Group members include deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies as well as staff of the General Assembly’s House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. The Work Group provided guidance and oversight for the Technical Advisory Committee, discussed detailed aspects of the forecasts, and directed technical staff to provide additional data as needed. This proved to be a critical point in the forecast process. The diverse backgrounds and expertise of Work Group members promoted in-depth discussions of numerous issues in criminal justice in Virginia.

Through the consensus process, a separate forecast is produced for each of the four major populations confined in state and local correctional facilities. Each of these is discussed in turn below.

Adult State-Responsible Offender Population. The largest of the four populations forecasted, the adult state-responsible offender population includes inmates incarcerated in state prisons as well as those state inmates being housed in the local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. The number of inmates grew by 1.9% in FY2006 to 36,579. The population is expected to increase to 42,201 by the end of FY2012. This forecast anticipates an average annual growth of 2.4% over the next six years. This rate is slightly higher than the actual growth recorded in the last year due to 1) an increase in the number of new court commitments convicted of violent crimes who are expected to enter the Department of Corrections (DOC) in the future, 2) longer sentences recorded in FY2005 for certain types of offenders, and 3) lower parole grant rates for those prison inmates sentenced prior to the abolition of parole who are serving out their sentences under the old parole laws. As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population forecast who may be appropriate for punishment via alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2012, it is projected that 3,039 technical probation violators will be confined within the state-responsible inmate population. Based on a detailed study completed by DOC, it is estimated that approximately 53% of technical violators who are sentenced to the Department may be suitable for alternative programs.

Adult Local-Responsible Offender Population. The adult local-responsible offender population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth excluding all state and federal inmates and ordinance violators (for whom the state does not provide per diem payments). In FY2006, on average, local-responsible prisoners made up 72% of the total jail population. The average local-responsible offender population grew by 7.6% in FY2006, increasing from 17,891 to 19,243. This population has grown significantly faster than any other correctional population in Virginia. The most substantial growth has been in the number of prisoners in jail awaiting trial. Recent regulation of bail bondsmen and bail enforcement agents may have been a factor in the disproportionate growth in the awaiting trial category. As a whole, the local-responsible offender population is projected to increase to an average of 24,846 in FY2012. This forecast, which anticipates an average growth of 4.4% annually, is higher than the forecast adopted in 2005 due to the dramatic growth seen in FY2006.

Juvenile State-Responsible Offender Population. The juvenile state-responsible offender population comprises all juveniles committed to the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) as wards and housed in the Department’s juvenile correctional facilities statewide. This population has declined steadily since 2000. Some of the decline is attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000. The change had an immediate impact on the number of juveniles committed to the state; however, the Department cannot attribute the continued decline in commitments through FY2005 and FY2006 to that policy change. During FY2006, the average daily population fell below 1,000 for the first time. The average daily population for the month of June 2006 was 1,033. After careful deliberation, the Policy Advisory Committee approved continued use of the forecast adopted in 2005 as the official forecast for this population. The juvenile correctional center population is projected to level off at 1,009 by the end of FY2012.

Juvenile Local-Responsible Offender Population. The juvenile local-responsible offender population encompasses all juveniles held in locally-operated detention homes around the Commonwealth. The state provides partial funding for detention home construction and operations and DJJ acts as the regulatory agency responsible for licensure of these facilities. Since FY2003, there have not been any significant changes in the detention home population. The population has fluctuated between an average of 1,030 and 1,060 for the fiscal year. While individual facilities may be experiencing crowding, detention home capacity statewide has not been fully utilized in recent years. For FY2006, the utilization rate was 74%. The forecast anticipates modest growth in this population, with the number of juveniles in detention homes averaging 1,079 in FY2012.

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For additional detail regarding any of the prisoner forecasts, contact Clyde Cristman, Deputy Secretary of Public Safety, at (804) 786-5351.