RD204 - Sexually Violent Predator Referral, Commitment, and Bed Utilization Forecast for 2007-2013


Executive Summary:
This forecast projects, for each of the next six years, the rate of:

• Full release of those inmates found not to be Sexually Violent Predators (SVP),
• Civil confinement of thsoe inmates found to be SVP,
• Conditional release of those inmates found to be SVP but judged suitable for community containment, and
• The rate of census growth at the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR).

The findings of this forecast reflect a 350% increase over the 2005 rate in the number of cases entering the SVP-eligible pool and being screened for SVP civil commitment each of these six years. This growth results from changes made by the 2006 session of the Virginia General Assembly to the Code of Virginia. The first change, effective July 1, 2006, replaced "RRASOR" with the "Static-99" as the Commonwealth's screening tool. The second change, effective January 1, 2007, expanded the number of SVP qualifying crimes.

This growth is reflected in the activity load on all parts of the SVP civil commitment system.

• The number of cases examined by the DOC SVP screening unit has increased from 30 per month to about 60 per month.
• The number of cases evaluated by the DMHMRSAS, reviewed by the CRC, and processed by the OAG for civil commitment has increased from 5 per month to 12 per month.

These changes have increased the number of cases post CRC review and recommendation but pending final disposition - the so-called "bubble" - from about 30 to about 60 at any given time.

In response to this growth in case rates, the SVP unit of the OAD has increased the number of attorneys handling SVP civil commitments. As these attorneys acquire experience and improve their effectiveness, the rate of cases reaching final dispostion increases, the bubble shrinks, and the SVP resident census at the VCBR increases.

Resident census will exceed capacity at the new VCBR nottoway sometime during fiscal year 2012.