RD217 - Report on the Offender Polulation Forecasts (FY2008 to FY2013)


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of offenders confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the prisoner forecasts, the Secretary of Public Safety utilizes an approach known as “consensus forecasting.” This process brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government. The process is structured through committees. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the various prisoner forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. Select forecasts are presented to the Policy-Technical Liaison Work Group. Chaired by the Deputy Secretary of Public Safety, the Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance and oversight for the Technical Advisory Committee. It includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Policy Advisory Committee. Led by the Secretary of Public Safety, the Policy Advisory Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes and selects the official forecast for each prisoner population. This Committee is made up of agency directors, lawmakers and other top-level officials from Virginia’s executive, legislative and judicial branches, as well as representatives of Virginia’s law enforcement and prosecutorial associations. Through the consensus process, a separate forecast is produced for each of the four major correctional populations, discussed below.

Adult State-Responsible Offender Population. The adult state-responsible offender population, the largest of the four forecasts, includes inmates incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. The population grew by 3.9% in FY2007, reaching 38,007 inmates. This growth, the highest single-year increase since FY2002, is primarily due to the significant increase in the number of offenders committed to the Department of Corrections (DOC). New commitments grew by more than 12% in 2006, far exceeding the growth experienced in previous years (5.1% in 2005, 0.1% in 2004, and 3.2% in 2003). Longer lengths of stay in FY2006, larger numbers of technical probation violators entering DOC and lower parole grant rates for inmates sentenced prior to the abolition of parole also contributed to the larger inmate population. Given recent trends, the 2007 forecast is higher than the one approved a year ago. The population is expected to reach 44,744 inmates by the end of FY2013, with an average annual growth of 2.8% anticipated over the next six years (see table below). As required, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2013, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 2,994 technical probation violators. Based on a recent study, DOC estimates that 53% of technical violators sentenced to the Department may be suitable for alternative programs.

Adult Local-Responsible Offender Population. The adult local-responsible offender population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. In FY2007, the average local-responsible offender population grew by 7.6%, to 20,703 prisoners. Several recent trends have likely had an impact on the jail population, such as increases in the number of adults arrested in Virginia, longer case processing time in the courts (resulting in longer periods of time served awaiting trial), and longer lengths of stay by convicted offenders serving a sentence. Strong growth for a second consecutive year has resulted in a higher forecast. The local-responsible offender population is projected to expand by 4.8% annually and reach an average of 27,394 offenders in FY2013 (see table in full report).

Juvenile State-Responsible Offender Population. The juvenile state-responsible offender population refers to the number of juveniles held in the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) correctional facilities. This population has declined each year since 2000. Some of this decline is attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000; however, the Department cannot attribute the continued decline in commitments through FY2007 to that policy change. The average daily population for the month of June 2007 was 1,013 juveniles. The forecast calls for a modest decline through FY2010. Beginning in FY2011, the population of juveniles in state correctional facilities is expected to begin increasing again due to the longer lengths of stay, on average, for juveniles committed today compared to juveniles committed a few years ago. By June 2013, the average daily population is expected to reach 943 juveniles (see table in full report).

Juvenile Local-Responsible Offender Population. The juvenile local-responsible offender population encompasses all juveniles held in locally-operated detention homes around the Commonwealth. The state provides partial funding for detention home construction and DJJ is responsible for licensure of these facilities. The overall detention home population has declined since FY2000 to an average of 1,061 juveniles in FY2007. While individual facilities may be experiencing crowding, detention home capacity statewide has not been fully utilized in recent years. A decline in this population is anticipated through FY2013, when the number of juveniles in detention homes is projected to average 1,003 (see table in full report).