RD328 - Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2009 To FY2014) - October 15, 2008


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of offenders confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the prisoner forecasts, the Secretary of Public Safety utilizes an approach known as “consensus forecasting.” This process brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government. The process is structured through committees. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the various prisoner forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. Select forecasts are presented to the Policy-Technical Liaison Work Group. Chaired by the Deputy Secretary of Public Safety, the Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance and oversight for the Technical Advisory Committee. It includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Policy Advisory Committee. Led by the Secretary of Public Safety, the Policy Advisory Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes, and selects the official forecast for each prisoner population. This Committee is made up of agency directors, lawmakers and other top-level officials from Virginia’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches, as well as representatives of Virginia’s law enforcement and prosecutorial associations. Through the consensus process, a separate forecast is produced for each of the four major correctional populations, discussed below.

Forecasts for each offender group were based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that they were produced. The Policy Committee included a cautionary note concerning the potential impact that the recent economic downturn may have on these forecasts. Depending upon the depth and length of the slowdown, there may be an impact on the numbers and mix of crimes committed in the Commonwealth. Additionally, with both State and Local governments having to reduce spending, there may be a shortage of programs which judges use to divert non-violent offenders away from incarceration. If budget cuts impact community sanctions and/or treatment services, then the numbers of those sentenced to secure facilities could increase.

Adult State-Responsible Inmate Population. The largest of the four forecasts, the adult state-responsible inmate population includes offenders incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. At the end of FY2008, there were a total of 38,826 state inmates. Overall, the population grew by 2.2% during FY2008; this is lower than the 3.9% growth seen in the previous fiscal year. Although the number of new commitments to the Department of Corrections increased by more than 12% from 2005 to 2006, there was only a modest increase in new commitments from 2006 to 2007 (approximately 0.6%). Given slower growth in FY2008, the forecast approved this year is lower than the one submitted a year ago. The population is expected to reach 44,422 inmates by the end of FY2014; an average annual growth of 2.3% is anticipated over the next six years (see table below). As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2014, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 2,273 technical probation violators; DOC estimates that 53% of these technical violators may be suitable for alternative programs.

Adult Local-Responsible Jail Population. The adult local-responsible jail population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. Following substantial growth of 7-8% in FY2006 and FY2007, the average local-responsible jail population declined in FY2008 by 1.7%, from 20,622 to 20,278 offenders. This decline was not expected. Indeed, there is no record of a year-to-year decline in this population during the last two decades. Although reports indicate increases in the number of arrests and court cases in 2008, data from the Department of Forensic Science (DFS) reveal a different trend that may help to explain both the significant growth in the local-responsible jail population in FY2006 and FY2007 as well as the subsequent decline in FY2008. DFS is the agency responsible for analyzing forensic evidence used in criminal trials. Between FY2003 and FY2005, the average monthly backlog of cases awaiting analysis more than doubled and then remained high during FY2006. This increase in the backlog of forensic evidence to be analyzed may have resulted in some defendants being held in jail for longer periods awaiting trial. In fact, the majority of the growth in the local-responsible jail population in FY2006 was attributable to a rise in the number of defendants in jail awaiting trial or pending additional charges. With additional positions and resources, DFS substantially reduced the forensic backlog, which by FY2008 was at its lowest level in six years. As DFS reduced its backlog, more criminal cases could be concluded and offenders sentenced. This is consistent with the changes in the local-responsible population seen in FY2008. The majority of the decline in the local-responsible population was in the number of individuals awaiting trial or pending charges; conversely, the number of sentenced felons in jail increased. The overall decline in the local-responsible jail population in FY2008, however, has resulted in a lower forecast. The population is projected to grow by 2.1% annually (less than half the annual growth projected last year) and reach an average of 23,007 offenders in FY2014 (see table below).

Juvenile Correctional Center Population. The juvenile state-responsible offender population refers to the number of juveniles held in the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) correctional facilities. This population has declined each year since 2000. Some of this decline is attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000; however, the Department cannot attribute the continued decline in commitments through FY2008 to that policy change. The average daily population for the month of June 2008 was 906 juveniles. The forecast calls for a continued decline through FY2011. Beginning in FY2012, however, the population of juveniles in state correctional facilities is expected to begin increasing again due to the longer lengths of stay, on average, for juveniles committed today compared to juveniles committed a few years ago. By June 2014, the average daily population is expected to reach 810 juveniles (see table below).

Juvenile Detention Home Population. The juvenile local-responsible offender population encompasses all juveniles held in locally-operated detention homes around the Commonwealth. The state provides partial funding for detention home construction and DJJ is responsible for licensure of these facilities. Between FY2003 and FY2007, there were no significant changes in the detention home population, when it remained between 1,030 and 1,080. In FY2008, the average detention home population dropped to 1,011, a 4.7% decrease. While individual facilities may be experiencing crowding, detention home capacity statewide has not been fully utilized in recent years. A modest decline in this population is anticipated through FY2014, when the number of juveniles in detention homes is projected to average 955 (see table below).

For additional information on the offender forecasts, contact Barry R. Green, through the Office of the Secretary of Public Safety, at (804) 786-5351.