RD299 - Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2010 to FY2015) - October 15, 2009


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of offenders confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the prisoner forecasts, the Secretary of Public Safety utilizes an approach known as “consensus forecasting.” This process brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government. The process is structured through committees. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the various prisoner forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. Select forecasts are presented to the Liaison Work Group. The Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance to the Technical Advisory Committee. It includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Policy Advisory Committee. Led by the Secretary of Public Safety, the Policy Advisory Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes, and selects the official forecast for each offender population. The Policy Committee is made up of agency directors, lawmakers and other top-level officials from Virginia’s executive, legislative, and judicial branches, as well as representatives of Virginia’s law enforcement, prosecutor, sheriff, and jail associations. Through the consensus process, a separate forecast is produced for each of the four major correctional populations.

The forecasts, approved in September 2009, were based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that they were produced. It is unclear, however, how long the current trends will continue. In particular, the duration of the current economic downturn and the timing and pace of recovery are not known. The depth and length of the economic recession may influence the numbers and types of crimes committed in the Commonwealth. Additionally, with both state and local governments forced to reduce spending, there may be shifts in the prioritization and deployment of law enforcement resources. As budget cuts impact community sanctions and treatment services, there may be a shortage of programs used by judges to divert non-violent offenders away from incarceration and the numbers of those sentenced to secure facilities may rise. For these reasons, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the future growth or decline of Virginia’s correctional populations. The forecast committees will continue to monitor the offender populations monthly in order to identify any changes as quickly as possible.

Adult State-Responsible Inmate Population

The largest of the four forecasts, the adult state-responsible inmate population includes offenders incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. For the first time in more than a decade, the population declined in FY2009. At the close of fiscal year (FY) 2009, there were a total of 38,387 state inmates. This is a decrease of 1.1% from the previous fiscal year. Much of the decline can be attributed to a significant drop in the number of offenders committed to the Department of Corrections (DOC). From FY2008 to FY2009, prison commitments fell by 5.3%. This shift is consistent with recent changes in arrest patterns, reductions in felony caseloads in circuit court, and declines in the number of offenders in jail awaiting trial. Given the population decline in FY2009, the forecast approved this year is lower than the one submitted a year ago. The population is expected to reach 39,910 inmates by the end of FY2015; an average annual growth of 0.7% is anticipated over the next six years (see table below). As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2015, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 2,363 technical probation violators; DOC estimates that 53% of these technical violators may be suitable for alternative programs.

Adult Local-Responsible Jail Population

The adult local-responsible jail population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. Following substantial growth of more than 7% in both FY2006 and FY2007, the average local-responsible jail population fell in FY2008 by 1.7%. The decline continued in FY2009, with the population shrinking another 3.0%, to an average of 19,671 for the year. The majority of the decrease in the local-responsible population in FY2009 was in the number of individuals in jail awaiting trial or pending additional charges. Recent declines in drug arrests have contributed to this. Drug arrests dropped more than 6% overall in 2008, while arrests for cocaine offenses plunged nearly 26%. Statewide, felony caseloads in circuit court have also dipped. Thus, the forecast for the local-responsible jail population has been revised downward. The population is projected to fall by 2% in FY2010 and to grow by less than 1% each year thereafter, reaching an average of 20,082 offenders in FY2015 (see table below). Changes in arrests, however, can have an immediate impact on the number offenders in jail. Also, a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision requiring forensic analysts to testify in person could result in delays in criminal trials associated with scheduling difficulties and with the reduction of hours spent by analysts in the lab processing evidence. This may increase the length of time defendants remain in jail awaiting trial. For these reasons, this population will be monitored closely.

Juvenile Correctional Center Population

The juvenile state-responsible offender population refers to the number of juveniles held in the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) correctional facilities. This population has been shrinking since FY2000. Some of the decline can be attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000. That policy change, however, cannot explain the persistent downward trend in commitments. At DJJ’s Court Serve Units, the point of entry into the juvenile justice system, the total number of juvenile intake cases fell for the fourth straight year, dropping by 1.4% in FY2009; except for Class 1 misdemeanors, all categories of intakes were down. The average daily population for the month of June 2009 was 882 juveniles. The forecast calls for a continued decline through FY2010. Beginning in FY2011, however, the population of juveniles in state correctional facilities is expected to begin increasing again due to the longer lengths of stay, on average, for juveniles committed today compared to juveniles committed a few years ago. By June 2015, the average daily population is expected to reach 912 juveniles (see table below).

Juvenile Detention Home Population

The juvenile local-responsible offender population encompasses all juveniles held in locally-operated detention homes around the Commonwealth. The state provides partial funding for detention home construction and DJJ is responsible for licensure of these facilities. Between FY2003 and FY2007, there were no significant changes in the detention home population, when it remained between 1,030 and 1,080. In FY2008, however, the average detention home population fell by 4.7%. This was followed by another 7.1% drop in FY2009, resulting in an average population of 939 juveniles for the year. Lower numbers of intakes at DJJ’s Court Service Units and a recent pilot program to reduce detention of low-risk juveniles have contributed to the changes in this population. While individual facilities may be experiencing crowding, detention home capacity statewide has not been fully utilized in recent years. It is anticipated that this population will remain relatively level throughout the next six years. The average population for FY2015 is projected to be 939 juveniles (the same as the FY2009 average population).