RD98 - Market Review & Fund Performance Analysis Virginia Birth-Related Neurological Injury Compensation Fund for Period Ending December 31, 2008 and Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for Years Ended December 31, 2007 and 2006
Executive Summary: The stock markets suffered through one of the worst years on record in 2008. The S&P 500 Index’s 37% loss was eclipsed only by the 43.4% decline in 1931. • The 4th Quarter results were dismal across domestic and international equity markets, with losses of 20% and higher. The results would have been markedly worse if not for a meaningful rally from late November through year end. During that period, the S&P 500 Index rallied nearly 17% as investors began to believe a bottom had been reached. Apparently, January was not consulted in that assessment as the market has continued to drop up to this writing. • In the U.S., large cap issues performed best as the Russell 1000 Index lost 22.5%, while midcap, small cap, and microcap benchmarks fell further with declines of 27.4%, 26.1% and 28.1%, respectively, as measured by the Russell indices. • Sector-wise, Financials fell 37% and was the worst performer of the GICS sectors. In all, 6 of the 10 sectors had losses of more than 20% for the quarter. • International equities offered no diversification benefit as the MSCI EAFE Index fell 20% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 27.6%. • Among developed countries, Japan weathered the turmoil best (-10%) while Austria suffered the most (-43%). • Developing countries had mixed results with China managing to hold their decline to just 10% while Russia’s market fell by more than 51% for the quarter. • Fixed income results varied widely with long U.S. Treasuries leading the way, posting gains of approximately 18% while the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index lost an equivalent amount (-17.6%). The Barclay’s Capital Aggregate Bond Index gained 4.6% as high grade gains in the treasury and corporate markets were partially offset by losses in the commercial mortgage-backed and asset-backed segments of the index. • The Citibank Non-US World Govt Bond Index rose 5.5% on a hedged basis and was up 8.8% with currency exposure as the dollar weakened in the closing weeks of the year. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Index (emerging markets debt) fell nearly 5%. • Outside of traditional equity and fixed income markets, performance in the 4th Quarter was even worse. Falling energy, agricultural, and metals prices drove commodity indices down, reflected in the DJ-AIG Commodity Index decline of 47% for the quarter. • REITs, which had held up well for the first three quarters of 2008, were severely punished as declining valuations, increasing vacancy rates and a worsening economic outlook pushed the NAREIT Equity Index down 38.8%. • The HFRI Hedge Fund of Funds Index dropped over 8% for the quarter and over 20% for 2008, suffering their worst year on record. Liquidity dried up, markets were artificially influenced by regulators suspending the ability to short certain stocks, deleveraging reached unprecedented proportions and the market was introduced to the largest episode of fraud on record courtesy of Bernard Madoff. • 2009 has started off with a number of positive factors in place that could set the stage for a significant rally with the return of some level of confidence and stability. The lowest interest rates and inflation rate since the end of WWII, tremendous drop in energy prices, massive fiscal stimulus, and an open checkbook from the U.S. Government to keep the financial system from plunging into the abyss will eventually become the cornerstones of a significant and sustainable rally. |