RD258 - Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2011 To FY2016)


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of offenders confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the prisoner forecasts, the Secretary of Public Safety utilizes an approach known as "consensus forecasting." This process brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government. The process is structured through committees. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the prisoner forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. Select forecasts are presented to the Liaison Work Group. The Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance to the Technical Advisory Committee. The Work Group includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Policy Advisory Committee. Led by the Secretary of Public Safety, the Policy Advisory Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes, and selects the official forecast for each offender population. The Policy Committee is made up of agency directors, lawmakers, and other top officials and includes representatives of Virginia's law enforcement, prosecutor, sheriff, and jail associations. Through the consensus process, a separate forecast is produced for each of the four major correctional populations.

The forecasts, approved in September 2010, were based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that they were produced. It is unclear how long the current trends will continue. For instance, the duration of the current economic downturn and the timing and pace of recovery are not known. The depth and length of the economic recession may influence the numbers and types of crimes committed in the Commonwealth. Additionally, with both state and local governments forced to reduce spending, there may be shifts in the prioritization and deployment of law enforcement resources. Furthermore, selected prison facilities have been closed and various community corrections programs have been eliminated or trimmed as a result of budget reductions. The availability of cocaine in the Commonwealth, reported to have declined during the last two years, could begin to increase once again. For many reasons, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the future growth or decline of Virginia's correctional populations. The forecast committees will continue to monitor the offender populations monthly in order to identify and analyze any changes as quickly as possible.

Adult State-Responsible Inmate Population

The largest of the four forecasts, the adult state-responsible inmate population includes offenders incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. After more than a decade of growth, the population has declined over the last two fiscal years, falling by 1.1% in fiscal year (FY) 2009 and by 1.7% in FY2010. At the close of FY2010, there were a total of 37,724 state inmates. Much of the decline can be attributed to a significant drop in the number of offenders committed to the Department of Corrections (DOC) since FY2007. This shift is consistent with recent changes in arrest patterns, reductions in felony caseloads in circuit court, the decrease in the number of offenders in jail awaiting trial, and changes in the backlog of drug cases awaiting analysis at the Department of Forensic Science. The forecast approved this year is lower than the one submitted a year ago. The population is expected to reach 38,947 inmates by the end of FY2016; an average annual growth of 0.5% is anticipated over the next six years (see table included in full report). As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2016, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 1,838 technical probation violators; DOC estimates that 53% of these technical violators may be suitable for alternative sanctions like the Department's detention and diversion center programs.

Adult Local-Responsible Jail Population

The adult local-responsible jail population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. Following substantial growth of more than 7% in both FY2006 and FY2007, the average local-responsible jail population dropped by 1.7% and 3.0% in FY2008 and FY2009, respectively. The decline continued in FY2010, with the population shrinking another 3.3%, to an average of 19,022 for the year. The majority of the decrease in the local-responsible population in FY2009 and FY2010 was in the number of individuals in jail awaiting trial or pending additional charges. Recent declines in drug arrests have contributed to this. Annual drug arrests have dropped by more than 6% since 2007; however, arrests for cocaine offenses have plummeted nearly 40%. Statewide, felony caseloads in circuit court have decreased and, in calendar year (CY) 2009, misdemeanor cases in general district courts declined as well. The forecast for the local-responsible jail population has been revised downward again this year. The population is projected to grow by a marginal 0.6% in FY2011 and to increase by approximately 1% each year thereafter, reaching an average of 20,116 offenders in FY2016 (see table included in full report). Changes in arrests, however, can have an immediate impact on the number of offenders in jail. For this reason, this population will be monitored closely throughout the coming year.

Juvenile Correctional Center Population

The juvenile state-responsible offender population refers to the number of juveniles held in the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) correctional facilities. This population has been shrinking since FY2000. Some of the decline can be attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000. That policy change, however, cannot explain the persistent downward trend in commitments. At DJJ's Court Serve Units, the point of entry into the juvenile justice system, the total number of juvenile intake cases fell for the fourth straight year, sinking by 11.5% in FY2010. The Policy Advisory Committee discussed factors that may be contributing to the decline in juvenile intake cases. For instance, Safe and Drug-Free Schools programs, supported by federal grants, have been developed to address at-risk behavior and to reduce incidents of crime and violence within schools and the community. In addition, DJJ has implemented policies that emphasize the use of validated risk assessment instruments in various aspects of community and institutional operations in order to reserve correctional and detention beds for juveniles who represent the greatest risk to public safety or are at risk for failing to appear in court. In June 2010, the average daily population in Virginia's juvenile correctional centers was 813. The forecast calls for a continued decline through FY2013. Beginning in FY2014, however, the population is expected to grow again due to the longer lengths of stay, on average, for juveniles committed today compared to juveniles committed a few years ago. By June 2016, the average daily population is projected to be 768 juveniles (see table included in full report).

Juvenile Detention Home Population

The juvenile local-responsible offender population encompasses all juveniles held in locally-operated detention homes around the Commonwealth. The state has provided partial funding for detention home construction and DJJ is responsible for licensure of these facilities. Between FY2003 and FY2007, the average detention home population fluctuated between 1,030 and 1,080 juveniles. The population has been shrinking since FY2007, reaching an average population of 805 juveniles for FY2010. Lower numbers of intakes at DJJ's Court Service Units and a pilot program to reduce detention of low-risk juveniles have contributed to the changes in this population. The downward trend in this population is expected to continue during the next six years. The average population for FY2016 is projected to be 607 juveniles.