RD259 - Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2012 to FY2017)


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of offenders confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the prisoner forecasts, the Secretary of Public Safety utilizes an approach known as "consensus forecasting." This process brings together policy makers, administrators and technical experts from all branches of state government. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the prisoner forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. Select forecasts are presented to the Liaison Work Group. The Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance to the Technical Advisory Committee. The Work Group includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Policy Committee. Led by the Secretary of Public Safety, the Policy Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes, and selects the official forecast for each offender population. The Policy Committee is made up of agency directors, lawmakers, and other top officials and includes representatives of Virginia's law enforcement, prosecutor, sheriff, and jail associations. Through the consensus process, a separate forecast is produced for each of the four major correctional populations.

The forecasts, approved in September 2011, were based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that they were produced. For many reasons, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the future growth or decline of Virginia's correctional populations. For instance, the duration of the current economic downturn and the timing and pace of recovery are not known. The depth and length of the economic recession may influence the numbers and types of crimes committed in the Commonwealth. Additionally, with both state and local governments forced to reduce spending, there may be shifts in the prioritization and deployment of law enforcement resources. Furthermore, selected prison facilities have been closed and various community corrections programs have been eliminated or trimmed as a result of budget reductions. The availability of cocaine, reported to have declined during the last three years, could begin to increase once again. Due to retroactive application of changes to the federal sentencing guidelines, drug offenders in the federal prison system who meet certain criteria will be eligible beginning in November 2011 to have their sentences reduced, accelerating release of these offenders from prison; the impact of these drug offenders returning to Virginia communities is not yet known. The forecast committees will continue to monitor the offender populations monthly in order to identify and analyze any changes as quickly as possible.

Adult State-Responsible Inmate Population. The largest of the four forecasts, the adult state-responsible inmate population includes offenders incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. After more than a decade of growth, the population has declined over the last three fiscal years, including a decrease of 0.6% in FY2011. At the close of FY2011, there were a total of 37,503 state inmates. Much of the decline can be attributed to a significant drop in the number of offenders committed to the Department of Corrections (DOC) since FY2007. This shift is consistent with observed changes in arrest patterns, reductions in felony caseloads in circuit court, the decrease in the number of offenders in jail awaiting trial during three of the last four years, and changes in the backlog of drug cases awaiting analysis at the Department of Forensic Science. The forecast approved this year is lower than the one submitted a year ago. The population is expected to decline through FY2014 to 37,304 inmates, increasing thereafter to 37,531 inmates by the end of FY2017 (see table on page 3 of the report). As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2017, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 1,201 technical probation violators.

Adult Local-Responsible Jail Population. The adult local-responsible jail population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. Following substantial growth of more than 7% in both FY2006 and FY2007, the average local-responsible jail population has fallen in each of the last four fiscal years. The decline continued in FY2011, although the rate of decline slowed. The population decreased by 0.1% in FY2011 to an average of 19,012 for the year. The majority of the decrease in the local-responsible population in FY2009 and FY2010 was in the number of individuals in jail awaiting trial. Declines in drug arrests contributed to this downward trend. Overall, drug arrests dropped by more than 8% between 2007 and 2009; however, arrests for cocaine offenses plummeted nearly 40% during that period. The total number of drug arrests rose in 2010 due to an increase in arrests for marijuana offenses. Statewide, felony caseloads in circuit court have decreased in each of the last three years. The local-responsible jail population is projected to grow by a marginal 0.8% in FY2012 and to increase by 0.5% each year thereafter, reaching an average of 19,642 offenders in FY2017 (see table on page 3 of the report). Changes in arrests, however, can have an immediate impact on the number of offenders in jail. For this reason, this population will be monitored closely throughout the coming year.

Juvenile Correctional Center Population. The juvenile state-responsible offender population refers to the number of juveniles held in the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) correctional facilities. This population has been shrinking since FY2000. Some of the decline can be attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000. That policy change, however, cannot explain the persistent downward trend in commitments. At DJJ's Court Serve Units, the point of entry into the juvenile justice system, the total number of juvenile intake cases dropped for the fifth straight year. Total juvenile intake cases fell by 20% between FY2007 and FY2011. Several factors may be contributing to the decline in juvenile intake cases. For instance, DJJ has implemented policies that emphasize the use of validated risk assessment instruments in various aspects of community and institutional operations in order to reserve correctional and detention beds for juveniles who represent the greatest risk to public safety or are at risk for failing to appear in court. In June 2011, the average daily population in Virginia's juvenile correctional centers was 808. The forecast calls for a continued decline through FY2014. Beginning in FY2015, however, the population is expected to grow again due to the longer lengths of stay, on average, for juveniles committed today compared to juveniles committed a few years ago. By June 2017, the average daily population is projected to be 725 juveniles (see table on page 3 of the report).

Juvenile Detention Home Population. The juvenile local-responsible offender population encompasses all juveniles held in locally-operated detention homes around the Commonwealth. Between FY2003 and FY2007, the average annual detention home population fluctuated between 1,030 and 1,080 juveniles. The population has been shrinking since FY2007, and detention homes housed an average of 758 juveniles in FY2011. Lower numbers of intakes at DJJ's Court Service Units and a pilot program to reduce detention of low-risk juveniles have contributed to the changes in this population. The downward trend in this population is expected to continue during the next six years. The average detention home population is projected to be 553 juveniles in FY2017 (see table on page 3 of the report).

For additional information on the offender forecasts, contact Banci Tewolde, through the Office of the Secretary of Public Safety, at (804) 786-5351.