RD378 - Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast for FY2012 - FY2017 - December 1, 2011


Executive Summary:
This report is submitted in accordance with Item 273 B.l-3. of the 2011 Appropriations Act, which directs that:

"B.1. The Secretary of Health and Human Resources, in collaboration with the Office of the Attorney General and the Secretary of Public Safety, shall present a six-year forecast of the adult offender population presently incarcerated in the Department of Corrections and approaching release who meet the criteria set forth in Chapter 863 and Chapter 914 of the 2006 Acts of Assembly, and who may be eligible for evaluation as sexually violent predators (SVPs) for each fiscal year within the six-year forecasting period. As part of the forecast, the secretary shall report on: (i) the number of Commitment Review Committee (CRC) evaluations to be completed; (ii) the number of eligible inmates recommended by the CRC for civil commitment, conditional release, and full release; (iii) the number of civilly committed residents of the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation who are eligible for annual review; and (iv) the number of individuals civilly committed to the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation and granted conditional release from civil commitment in a state SVP facility. The secretary shall complete a summary report of current SVP cases and a forecast of SVP eligibility, civil commitments, and SVP conditional releases, including projected bed space requirements, to the Governor and Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees by October 1 of each year."

The commitment of individuals as Sexually Violent Predators (SVP) involves the court and three state agencies: the Department of Corrections (DOC), the Office of the Attorney General (OAG), and the Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Services (DBHDS).

Persons civilly committed as Sexually Violent Predators are housed in the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) on the grounds of the Piedmont Geriatric Hospital (PGH) in Nottoway County. This facility was designed with a capacity of 300 beds. The 2010 SVP Forecast predicted that by July 1, 2011, census would be approximately 292 residents and would reach 300 in October. On 1 July 2011, VCBR housed 275 residents, 17 fewer than predicted by the 2010 SVP Forecast.

This year's forecast (for the period July 1, 2011 through June 30, 2012) predicts a monthly average admission rate of 5.00. This number is 1.42 fewer admissions per month than predicted by last year's forecast. This represents a significant reduction in admission rate to the VCBR. At this rate, reaching the 300 maximum-capacity census level occurs later than expected by the end of February 2012. Admission rates for the upcoming five years vary between 4.00 to 4.58 per month. At these rates (calculating from July 1, 2011), census will reach 450 around September 2015.

There are several possible explanations for this change in admission rate:

• an increase in use of SVP conditional release, which diverts more individuals away from the VCBR to the community; or,

• an increase in the number of individuals being discharged from VCBR to SVP conditional release in the community.