RD287 - Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast for FY2013 - FY2018

Executive Summary:
This report is submitted in accordance with Item 282 C.1-3. of the 2012 Appropriation Act, which directs that:

"B.1. The Secretary of Health and Human Resources, in collaboration with the Office of the Attorney General and the Secretary of Public Safety, shall present a six-year forecast of the adult offender population presently incarcerated in the Department of Corrections and approaching release who meet the criteria set forth in Chapter 863 and Chapter 914 of the 2006 Acts of Assembly, and who may be eligible for evaluation as sexually violent predators (SVPs) for each fiscal year within the six-year forecasting period As part of the forecast, the secretary shall report on: (i) the number of Commitment Review Committee (CRC) evaluations to be completed; (ii) the number of eligible inmates recommended by the CRC for civil commitment, conditional release, and full release; (iii) the number of civilly committed residents of the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation who are eligible for annual review; and (iv) the number of individuals civilly committed to the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation and granted conditional release from civil commitment in a state SVP facility. The secretary shall complete a summary report of current SVP cases and a forecast of SVP eligibility, civil commitments, and SVP conditional releases, including projected bed space requirements, to the Governor and Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees by October 1 of each year."

The commitment of individuals as Sexually Violent Predators (SVP) involves the court and three state agencies: the Department of Corrections (DOC), the Office of the Attorney General (OAG), and the Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Services (DBHDS).

Persons civilly committed as Sexually Violent Predators (SVP) are housed in the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) on the grounds of the Piedmont Geriatric Hospital (PGH) in Nottoway County. This facility was designed with a capacity in 2000 of 300 beds. The 2011 General Assembly directed that the facility be double-bunked to increase capacity to 450. When the facility opened in 2003, there were four SVP predicate crimes and the monthly gross admissions rate was below one per month. Anticipating an admission rate of two per month placed reaching maximum census over 12 years later to 2015. In 2006, the number of SVP predicate crimes was increased to 28. At the same time, the RRASOR risk assessment tool was replaced by the STATIC-99. (*1) Combined, this increased the yearly admission rate to VCBR from 24 admissions in 2005 (2 per month) to 67 admissions in 2008 (5.58 per month).

Beginning in 2006, DBHDS has submitted an annual forecast of census growth at VCBR to the General Assembly as the Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast report, most recently submitted as Report Document No. 378 (2011). The forecast predicts how many individuals will be:

• Found SVP during the forecast period;
• Civilly committed to VCBR;
• Placed on SVP conditional release directly from the DOC; and
• Conditionally released from the VCBR.

The 2011 Forecast predicted that 73 individuals would be found to be SVP by the courts between July 1, 2011 and June 30, 2012. The last forecast estimated that 60 of these individuals would be committed to the VCBR. That rate projected the total census at the facility to 335 by June 30, 2012.

Since the 2011 Forecast was published, on 1 July 2012, the gross census was 310. (*2) Of this number, 294 (net census) were residents at the facility on 1 July 2012. The remaining individuals not in residence were in jail for new criminal offenses or in hospital for treatment or medical tests. These issues and the six-year forecast are presented below.
(*1) A comparison of the tools can be found in Report Document 80 (2005), Report of the Virginia State Crime Commission: Sex Offenders in Virginia, http://Ieg2.state.va.us/dls/h&sdocs.nsf/By+Year/RD802006/Sfile/RDBO.pdf
(*2) The terms gross and net are used in this document to differentiate between the total number of persons committed to VCBR (gross census) and the number actually residing at the facility (net census).