RD147 - Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast for FY2014 – FY2019

Executive Summary:
This report is submitted in accordance with Item 282 C.1-3. of the 2013 Appropriation Act, which directs that:

"C.1. The Secretary of Health and Human Resources, in collaboration with the Office of the Attorney General and the Secretary of Public Safety, shall present a six-year forecast of the adult offender population presently incarcerated in the Department of Corrections and approaching release who meet the criteria set forth in Chapter 863 and Chapter 914 of the 2006 Acts of Assembly, and who may be eligible for evaluation as sexually violent predators (SVPs) for each fiscal year within the six-year forecasting period As part of the forecast, the secretary shall report on: (i) the number of Commitment Review Committee (CRC) evaluations to be completed; (ii) the number of eligible inmates recommended by the CRC for civil commitment, conditional release, and full release; (iii) the number of civilly committed residents of the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation who are eligible for annual review; and (iv) the number of individuals civilly committed to the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation and granted conditional release from civil commitment in a state SVP facility. The secretary shall complete a summary report of current SVP cases and a forecast of SVP eligibility, civil commitments, and SVP conditional releases, including projected bed space requirements, to the Governor and Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees by October 1 of each year."

Fiscal Year 2014 began with a Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) on-books census of 327. This year’s forecast estimates that approximately 62 individuals will be admitted to VCBR during the current Fiscal Year, ending on June 30, 2014. This year’s forecast estimates that approximately 25 individuals will be discharged from VCBR for all reasons (unconditional release by the court, conditional release, and death).
Based on this, the forecast predicts that maximum census of 450 will be reached in mid 2016.

One of the primary goals of the forecast is to identify the month and year in which VCBR will reach maximum capacity. In support of this goal, this forecast proceeds on a number of assumptions.

a) Net Admissions Rate: ~3.38 per month. *(1)

This represents programmatic knowledge coupled with data for the current fiscal year.

b) Admissions that can be double-bunked with no restrictions: 70.77%.

Based on census as of February 2014, this percentage of the population may be double-bunked with no restrictions. There are a portion of individuals that may be double-bunked, but have restrictions (i.e. can only sleep on lower bunk); however, because this portion does not exceed 50% of those that may be double-bunked , the Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Services (DBHDS, or ‘the department’) concluded that this will have no impact on the forecast.

c) Admissions that must be placed in a single room: 29.23%.

Based on census as of February 2014, this percentage of the population must live in a single room for one of the following reasons:

- Medical needs (i.e., contagious disease);
- Dorm must be specialized for intellectual disability or special needs;
- Dorm must be specialized for medical needs; or,
- Past demonstration of behavioral issues.

d) When out of single rooms, there becomes a need to use rooms converted for double occupancy for singles.

e) Current “on books” census as of February 28, 2014 is 348.
*(1) “Net” admission rate is calculated by taking the total number admitted per fiscal, subtracting the number discharged, and dividing by 12 months.