RD37 - Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast for FY 2015 – FY 2020


Executive Summary:
This year’s Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) forecast predicts that, due to a decline in admissions and an increase in discharges, the maximum census of 450 residents at the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) will not be reached until the middle of calendar year 2018.

The rate of census growth at VCBR has been declining for a number of years. This is due to two primary factors. The projected number of SVP-eligible inmates referred each year from the Department of Corrections (DOC) for SVP evaluation, after several years of increase, is declining. A decline in the number of SVP-eligible inmates evaluated, translates into a similar decline in the number of individuals admitted to the VCBR. In total, admissions to VCBR have dropped from an average rate of 7.42 admissions per month in FY 2010, to an average rate of 4.50 per month in FY2014.

On the other end of the census continuum, the number of discharges from VCBR has grown steadily, from a total of two in FY 2004 to 30 in FY 2014. Most of this increase has occurred since FY 2011.

The impact of these factors in combination is a significant slowing of census growth. Put in context, the forecast for FY 2011 predicted that maximum census of 450 would be reached in mid-2013 (predicting 444 residents on 30 July 2013). The trends described above have steadily pushed back the date of reaching maximum census to, in the present forecast, sometime during mid calendar year 2018 (predicting 456 residents admitted by 30 June 2018).

VCBR census is described using two statistics: “on-books” census and “in-house” census.

• On-books census includes all individuals actually admitted to the facility and carried on the roles or “on-books.” Once admitted, VCBR residents remain on-books until they are formally discharged.

• In-house census is the number of residents physically residing in the facility on a particular date.

At any one time, about 20 individuals who are carried on-books will be held outside VCBR: in jail for annual review or other hearings, serving a sentence on conviction for a new crime, or while in a hospital. As such, the in-house census will always be lower than the on-books. It is important to understand that VCBR is responsible for providing a bed and care to all residents listed on-books.