RD377 - Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast for FY 2016 – FY 2021


Executive Summary:
Mandate: This report is submitted in accordance with Item 278 A.1-3 of the 2015 Appropriation Act, which directs that: The Secretary of Health and Human Resources, in collaboration with the Office of the Attorney General and the Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security, shall present a six-year forecast of the adult offender population presently incarcerated in the Department of Corrections (DOC) and approaching release who meet the criteria set forth in Chapter 863 and Chapter 914 of the 2006 Acts of Assembly, and who may be eligible for evaluation as sexually violent predators (SVPs) for each fiscal year within the six-year forecasting period. As part of the forecast, the secretary shall report on: (i) the number of Commitment Review Committee (CRC) evaluations to be completed; (ii) the number of eligible inmates recommended by the CRC for civil commitment, conditional release, and full release; (iii) the number of civilly committed residents of the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) who are eligible for annual review; and (iv) the number of individuals civilly committed to the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation and granted conditional release from civil commitment in a state SVP facility. The secretary shall complete a summary report of current SVP cases and a forecast of SVP eligibility, civil commitments, and SVP conditional releases, including projected bed space requirements, to the Governor and Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees by November 15 of each year.

This year’s SVP forecast predicts that the maximum census of 450 residents at Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) will be reached by mid-2018 (See Table 1).

While there continues to be slight variations in the number of DOC inmates released each year who are eligible to be screened for possible SVP commitment, the frequency rate for those who meet the threshold for further evaluation for commitment and the rate of those who are recommended for and eventually committed remain relatively stable. During FY 2015 the number of admissions to VCBR relating to revocation from SVP conditional release increased from a yearly average of three to a total of 15. However, this increased census pressure was balanced by an equal (and unexpected) increase in the number of discharges from VCBR. As a result, census growth is very close to that predicted in the 2014 SVP forecast. The experiences from FY 2015 have been carefully analyzed and incorporated into the FY 2016 – FY 2021 forecast.