RD390 - Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2016 to FY2021) - October 15, 2015


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of persons confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the offender forecasts, the Secretary’s Office utilizes an approach known as “consensus forecasting.” This process brings together policy makers, administrators, and technical experts from all branches of state government. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the offender forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. Selected forecasts are presented to the Secretary’s Work Group. The Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance to the Technical Advisory Committee. The Work Group includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Secretary’s Policy Committee. Led by the Secretary, the Policy Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes, and selects the official forecast for each offender population. The Policy Committee is made up of lawmakers, agency directors, and other top officials and includes representatives of Virginia’s prosecutor, police, sheriff, and jail associations. Through the consensus process, a forecast is produced for each of the four major offender populations.

The forecasts, approved in October 2015, were based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that they were produced. Implementation of a new jail data system in June 2013 has had an impact on the forecasting process. Conversion to the new jail data system, known as LIDS-CORIS, was not seamless. Issues encountered with the new system now have been resolved and the data has been verified by Virginia’s Compensation Board. In addition, computer programming designed to support the jail data system was reviewed in detail and improvements to the programming were developed by the Compensation Board and implemented in 2015. Based on the improvements in the LIDS-CORIS system and support programming, population figures for the adult state and local-responsible populations were revised for the period January 2005 – June 2015. Information in this report is based on the revised population figures provided by the Compensation Board in June 2015.

Adult State-Responsible Confined Population. The largest of the forecasted populations, the state-responsible confined population includes offenders incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. After more than a decade of growth, the population declined each year from fiscal year (FY) 2009 through FY2012. Much of the decline during that period can be attributed to a significant drop in the number of offenders committed to the state’s Department of Corrections (DOC). This shift was consistent with observed changes in arrest patterns, a decline in felony sentencing events in circuit court, and a return to pre-2004 levels in the backlog of drug cases awaiting analysis at the Department of Forensic Science. During the two-year period between June 30, 2012, and June 30, 2014, the number of state-responsible inmates grew by approximately 1,000, or 2.7%, to a population of 38,871. The number of females offenders committed to prison increased significantly during that two-year period. In FY2015, the state-responsible population decreased by 0.3% to 38,761 inmates. Based on the approved forecast, the population is projected to increase by an average of 0.4% annually during the next six years, reaching 39,702 inmates by the end of FY2021 (see table below). This forecast is slightly lower than the forecast presented to the Governor and General Assembly last year. This is primarily driven by the forecast of new commitments to the Department, which suggests higher growth in offenders committed for property and drug offenses (i.e., offenders with shorter lengths-of-stay) relative to offenders committed for violent offenses (i.e., offenders with longer lengths-of-stay). As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for punishment via alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2021, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 1,776 technical probation violators (i.e., offenders who violated the rules of probation but have not been convicted of a new crime).

Adult Local-Responsible Jail Population. The local-responsible jail population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. Following substantial growth in FY2006 and FY2007, the average local-responsible jail population declined each succeeding year through FY2010. In FY2011, the average local-responsible jail population began to rise, with growth of less than 1% in four of the last five years fiscal years. Overall, the average population increased by 0.2% in FY2015; however, the population during March through June of 2015 was significantly lower than expected given the typical seasonal patterns observed in jail populations. Under the approved forecast, the local-responsible jail population is projected to decline from an average of 19,411 in FY2015 to 18,501 in FY2017. Beginning in FY2018, the population is expected to increase for the remainder of the forecast horizon to an average of 19,002 in FY2021 (see table on page vii).

Juvenile Direct Care Population. Juvenile offenders committed to the state are held in facilities operated by the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) or they are placed in re-entry, community placement, or halfway house programs(*1); collectively, these make up DJJ’s total direct care population. The number of juveniles in the direct care population has been falling since FY2000. Some of the early decline may be attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000, as well as subsequent statutory changes discussed later in this report. These policy changes alone cannot explain the persistent downward trend in commitments through FY2014. At Court Services Units, the point of entry into the juvenile justice system, the total number of juvenile intake cases has declined for the eleventh consecutive year. In addition, DJJ has implemented procedures that include the use of validated risk assessment instruments in numerous aspects of community and facility operations in order to reserve juvenile correctional beds for those who represent the greatest risk to public safety. For the first time since FY2000, the number of admissions to the population increased in FY2015 (up by 15 juveniles, or 4%). However, the total direct care population fell to an average of 509 in FY2015, a decrease of 90 from the previous year, due to shorter average lengths-of-stay. The forecast for the direct care population anticipates a continued decline through FY2019. Beginning in FY2020, this population is expected to level off. For FY2021, the average population is projected to be 302 juveniles (see table on page vii).

Juvenile Detention Home Population. Juveniles held in local or commission-operated juvenile detention homes around the Commonwealth make up the juvenile local-responsible population. The juvenile detention home population declined from an average of 1,061 in FY2007 to an average of 729 in FY2013. Lower numbers of intakes at court service units and procedures to reduce detention of low-risk juveniles have contributed to the downward trend. The population increased slightly to 735 in FY2014 due to longer lengths-of-stay, but decreased to 709 in FY2015 due to drop in detainments (admissions) of nearly 9%. The average detention home population is projected to drop to 436 juveniles in FY2021 (see table on page vii).
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(*1) DJJ operated halfway houses for the direct care population beginning in July 2012. Due to budget reductions, the halfway houses were closed in January 2014.