RD476 - Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments and Bed Utilization Forecast for FY 2019 to FY 2024

Executive Summary:

The census at the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) will outgrow existing space near the end of this calendar year. Construction has begun on the expansion of VCBR in June of 2018 which will increase bed capacity to 632 residents. It is anticipated that the expansion will be completed in 2020, however, VCBR will hit its maximum operational capacity well before 2020 thus the Department of Behavioral Health and Developmental Services (DBHDS) has made plans to address the census demands. Specifically modifications are being made to an existing wing of Piedmont Geriatric Hospital that will temporarily house medically compromised VCBR residents until the VCBR expansion is complete. Additionally, the expansion of VCBR is being done in phases, thus allowing housing units/wings to be brought on line incrementally during the construction allowing DBHDS to address growing census needs.

VCBR will also exceed its post-expansion capacity of 632 beds by late calendar year 2022 or early 2023. In response to a legislative mandate, DBHDS submitted a report to the General Assembly in November 2016 outlining alternatives to secure confinement that the General Assembly could implement to delay future needs to expand the VCBR and reduce costs. These proposals include options such as the purchase of nursing home beds and assisted living facility (ALF) placements, pre-SVP treatment programs and transitional housing programs. It is anticipated that implementing these strategies would slow the census growth over time, although it is unlikely that the interventions themselves (other than if the General Assembly were to amend the Code and remove certain offenses from the list of offenses which qualify an individual for commitment) would reverse the census growth and negate the need for the secured treatment program.

The information included in this forecast is based on historical data related to the civil commitment and conditional release of sexually violent predators (SVPs) in Virginia combined with data from the Virginia Department of Corrections (VADOC) on the number of inmates likely eligible for release in the upcoming six fiscal years who appear to meet the criteria for review for possible commitment as a sexually violent predator, as established by the Code of Virginia. This forecast is an attempt to predict how past patterns and current trends may impact future Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR) census data. There are a number of variables that contribute significantly to the outcome predictions in this report including the current census of VCBR and the number of SVP individuals on conditional release status in the community. The data related to these variables is outlined in this report and described in further detail in the Forecast Variables section. It is important to note that it is not possible to predict every variable that may either positively or negatively impact the eventual census outcomes with complete accuracy. However, this forecast represents an informed approximation of how many SVP individuals will be residing at VCBR and on conditional release in the community for each of the next six years.