The 33rd Bay-wide Winter Dredge Survey was conducted from December 2021 to March 2022 by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) and Maryland Department of Natural Resources (MD DNR). Results indicate the blue crab stock is not depleted and overfishing is not occurring relative to reference points established in the 2017 stock assessment. However the total abundance of crabs was the lowest in the survey history. The 2021-22 Winter Dredge Survey estimate of abundance of all size classes of blue crabs was 227 million crabs, which is 46% lower than the long-term survey average of 417 million crabs and 20% lower than the 2021 total abundance estimate of 282 million crabs.

Juvenile crabs accounted for 45% of the 2022 total abundance, or 101 million crabs. This is 18% higher than the 2021 juvenile population of 185 million crabs and 53% below the long-term survey average of 214 million juvenile crabs. It is the second lowest juvenile abundance recorded in the 33 years of the Winter Dredge Survey, just above the 2021 value. Juvenile crabs surveyed in wintertime are important to the current year’s harvest, as they recruit to harvestable size in late summer and fall and contribute to the following year’s spawning stock.

The survey estimated 97 million overwintering female crabs that could potentially spawn in 2022 (if not harvested prior to the spawning seasons), which is 34% below the average since female-conservative measures were put in place in 2008 and 16% below the long-term average. The 2022 abundance estimate of spawning-age female crabs is above the threshold of 70 million crabs established by the 2017 Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Stock Assessment Update but below the target of 196 million crabs. Since 2008, there has generally been a continuation of management measures by all Chesapeake Bay jurisdictions to conserve the spawning-age female crabs. The Virginia winter dredge fishery season has been closed each year since 2008. That conservation measure may partially account for above average spawning-age female abundance in nine of the fourteen years since, because closing the winter dredge season allows juvenile crabs to be free of fishing pressure after they mature in fall. The importance of the mature female crabs is their contribution to the spawning events in late May and JulyAugust of the same year in which the Bay-wide Winter Dredge Survey is completed. These crabs are also important to the spring and early summer harvest, as a high proportion of the Virginia commercial and recreational harvest consists of female crabs.

Conservative management can lessen the effects of environmentally-influenced annual variation in blue crab abundance. Abundance is especially variable during the early life stages of crabs when natural mortality is high. Conservation of female spawning-age crabs as well as juvenile crabs is the primary management objective to attempt to lessen variability of the blue crab stock abundance. The extensive management measures from 2008 that were implemented throughout the Chesapeake Bay jurisdictions have helped to mitigate year-to-year variability in the fisheries that previously resulted in overfishing during many prior years (see Attachment 1). Juvenile crab abundance can vary because of inter-annual differences in the entrainment of crab larvae from the ocean to Chesapeake Bay. This process is subject to natural fluctuations in the prevailing current and wind patterns. Environmental factors including weather conditions and predation can influence all life stages of the crab population. Additionally, year to year variation of predators, such as red drum, blue catfish, striped bass, and adult blue crabs, can affect juvenile blue crab abundance.

In 2022, the total abundance of blue crabs in Chesapeake Bay was at a 33-year low, as was the abundance of adult male crabs. The juvenile abundance was the second-lowest, only higher than the 2021 abundance. This is a cause for concern for managers and scientists. In their 2022 Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Advisory Report (Attachment 2), the Chesapeake Bay Stock Assessment Committee (CBSAC) recommended precautionary management measures to protect the juvenile and adult female cohorts in the bay. CBSAC also recommended a new benchmark stock assessment for blue crabs and hosted a data-gathering workshop in September 2022 to consider new data sources on drivers of blue crab abundance.

The VMRC, MD DNR, and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission (PRFC) agreed that precautionary management measures are appropriate, given the low total abundance and a trend of low juvenile recruitment. In response to the 2021-22 Winter Dredge Survey results, the jurisdictions agreed on managing for a 7-10% reduction in harvest. At a June 28, 2022 public hearing, the Commission reestablished the traditional crab pot season for 2021 and 2022: a March 17 opening and a November 30 closure. However, the Commission extended the fall and spring low bushel limits to begin October 1, 2022 and run through May 15, 2023. This will protect more females in the fall, when they migrate to their overwintering area of the lower bay, and in the spring, when the females are beginning to spawn. The Commission also curtailed the season for all other crab gears by two weeks on either end to close October 15, 2022 and reopen on April 15, 2023. While results of these management actions will not be evident until next year, it is notable that harvest in the spring of 2022 was 40% lower than the average across the preceding four years.