The 35th Bay-wide Winter Dredge Survey was conducted from December 2023 to March 2024 by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) and Maryland Department of Natural Resources (MD DNR). Results indicate the Chesapeake Bay blue crab stock is not depleted and overfishing is not occurring relative to reference points established in the 2017 stock assessment update. The total abundance of crabs in 2024 – 317 million crabs – remained at similar levels to those surveyed in 2023.

The 2011 Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Stock Assessment recommended reference points be set as indices of the spawning stock or the female population. The adult female population in 2024 was estimated at 133 million crabs, a decrease of 14% from 2023 and 10% below the geometric mean since female-specific reference points were put in place in 2011. This estimate of spawning-age female crabs is above the threshold of 70 million crabs established by the 2017 Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Stock Assessment Update but below the target of 196 million crabs. Since 2008, there has generally been a continuation of management measures by all Chesapeake Bay jurisdictions to conserve the spawning-age female crabs, including an ongoing closure of the Virginia winter crab dredge fishery. The winter crab dredge fishery closure may partially account for above average spawning-age female abundance in eleven of the fifteen years since it began, because closing the winter crab dredge season allows juvenile crabs to be free of fishing pressure during the winter after they mature in fall. Mature female crabs will spawn in late spring and summer of the same year in which the Bay-wide Winter Dredge Survey is completed.

Blue crab commercial harvest from the Chesapeake Bay, as reported by the Virginia Marine Resources Commission (VMRC), MD DNR, and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission (PRFC), totaled 45.7 million pounds in 2023. This is a 9% increase from 2022 but is 24% below the mean commercial harvest since 1990. Virginia, Maryland, and the Potomac River accounted for 37%, 55%, and 8% of the Bay-wide harvest, respectively. Commercial harvest in Virginia’s tidal waters has been reported through the VMRC Mandatory Harvest Reporting Program as 18.6 million pounds with an estimated dockside value of $41 million.

In their annual meeting to discuss management responses to the Winter Dredge Survey results, the VMRC, MD DNR, and PRFC agreed to maintain status quo management measures in relation to the regulations enacted in 2024. The Commission voted to extend the daily time limits for crabbing to 3 AM through 5 PM, allowing more flexibility for crabbers, particularly on the Eastern Shore, to navigate with respect to the tides. The current crab pot season will close on December 16, 2024, and re-open on March 17, 2025, with low bushel limits in place until May 15. The season for all other commercial crab ended October 15, 2024, and will reopen April 15, 2025.

Conservation of female spawning-age crabs as well as juvenile crabs is the primary management objective to attempt to lessen variability of the blue crab stock abundance. The extensive management measures from 2008 that were implemented throughout the Chesapeake Bay jurisdictions have helped to mitigate year-to-year variability in the fisheries that previously resulted in overfishing during many prior years (see Attachment 1). Juvenile crab abundance can vary because of inter-annual differences in the entrainment of crab larvae from the ocean to the Chesapeake Bay. This process is subject to natural fluctuations in the prevailing current and wind patterns. Environmental factors including weather conditions and predation can influence all life stages of the crab population. Additionally, year-to-year variation of predators, such as red drum, blue catfish, striped bass, and adult blue crabs, can affect juvenile blue crab abundance.

A new benchmark stock assessment for blue crabs in Chesapeake Bay is in process, with completion expected in 2026.