In the 2023 General Assembly session, House Bill 2026 (HB2026) directed the Virginia Department of Forestry (DOF) to convene an advisory panel to examine the use of biomass for electricity generation in the Commonwealth and submit a report of the panel's findings and recommendations to the General Assembly. The Biomass Advisory Panel (BAP) was directed to consider biomass energy policies in other states, potential forest benefits from using biomass, the availability of biomass material for utilization, technological advances related to biomass energy generation, along with a life-cycle carbon analysis (LCA) of woody biomass utilization. DOF contracted with the University of Virginia School of Engineering and Applied Sciences to conduct the LCA. The analysis of energy policies in the other PJM member states indicates that most states treat forest biomass as a renewable energy source. DOF provided information on the forest health benefits associated with the utilization of woody biomass. Biomass markets currently provide direct and indirect benefits for forest health and have the potential to provide greater benefits if they were expanded. DOF also provided information on the availability of woody biomass material. Forest inventory data indicates that there is considerable additional biomass material produced in the forest annually. This report does not indicate any technological advancements that will alter woody biomass generation in the near term.

The LCA evaluated the atmospheric carbon impacts of woody biomass utilization by first modeling the current situation with the three Dominion Energy power plants (located in Altavista, Hopewell and Southampton) continuing to operate. This baseline scenario showed that the net atmospheric carbon levels associated with the operation of the biomass plants was negative (less carbon released into the atmosphere) largely because the carbon sequestration from forest growth outweighed all other parameters.

The LCA then modeled several alternative scenarios to examine what would happen if the three facilities did not operate and this analysis required significant assumptions. Critical assumptions included the fate of timber harvest residuals including limbs, treetops, and tree trunks. These materials could be left to decay or burned on site, and some could be used for alternative forest products. The difference in carbon impacts from these processes reflect differences in rates at which harvested materials are decomposed back to the atmosphere. The carbon balance is strongly influenced by what fraction of harvested materials is used to create durable wood products versus consumed to produce bioelectricity. Another scenario considered was the potential for forestland to be converted to non-forest use after harvest.

Consideration of foregone sequestration – the loss of future sequestration that would have occurred if a tree was not cut down – was specifically called for in the legislation. A separate analysis was performed to examine the magnitude of foregone sequestration compared to the other parameters. Foregone sequestration was found to be positive – associated with more carbon being released – but smaller in magnitude relative to the forest ecosystem flux values.

Two scenarios were included to model the source of electricity generation that would replace the electricity currently coming from biomass. One was the current mix of power being used in Virginia minus biomass and the second assumed that electricity generation will follow the mandates in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (*RGGI) and the VCEA.

Assumptions are critical to this type of analysis and differing assumptions can significantly alter the outcome. Members of the advisory panel represented a range of perspectives, and it was not always possible to reach consensus on model parameters. The model approach did account for alternative viewpoints by including multiple scenarios and by running sensitivity analyses. While there are differences of opinion on various parameters this LCA model tested multiple assumptions and represents one viable analysis conducted according to established methodologies.

The LCA results show that all modeled scenarios result in less carbon in the atmosphere, with continued operation of the biomass facilities or without. Combustion of woody biomass for electricity does increase carbon emissions, particularly in the short term. The LCA shows that emissions would be higher over the long term if roundwood makes up a significant portion of the woody biomass mix, which is not a common practice in Virginia.

There are multiple sources of data that show Virginia’s forests sequester and hold a vast storehouse of carbon. Many decades of forest growth happened as the result of the active management of more than 400,000 private landowners in response to available markets. The health of the forests that store this carbon pool is now at risk from multiple threats. These forest health threats include invasive plants, exotic insects and diseases, changing weather patterns, lack of natural fire regimes, land conversion and fragmentation.

Intentional management is needed to create the conditions that are missing from our forests to make them more resilient. Removing the right trees in a responsible manner can create conditions that our forests require for desirable regeneration. Markets for low-value forest materials provide an incentive for landowners to invest in forest protection and restoration. There is no historical precedence in Virginia to indicate that the loss of markets for sustainably sourced forest products will improve forest health.

The LCA demonstrates the potential to reduce atmospheric carbon by increasing the health and productivity of our forests. Biomass energy production provides a low-cost means for forest landowners to implement practices that will improve the health, productivity and resilience of our forests.
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*The State Air Pollution Control Board voted to adopt the regulation repeal to remove the Commonwealth of Virginia from RGGI at its June 7, 2023 meeting. The final regulation repeal was published in the Virginia Register on July 31, 2023.