RD89 - Sexually Violent Predator Referrals, Commitments, and Bed Utilization Forecast – January 14, 2025
Executive Summary: Pursuant to budget language, staff from the Department of Behavioral Health & Developmental Services (DBHDS) collaborate with staff from the Virginia Department of Corrections (DOC) and the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) to develop a forecast of the number of individuals who will be involved in Virginia’s sexually violent predator (SVP) civil commitment and conditional release programs. This forecast is revised and adjusted each year based on changes in historical trends, new developments related to the SVP process and system changes that may affect the census of the Virginia Center for Behavioral Rehabilitation (VCBR). Reviewing this data annually provides an opportunity to learn from the comparison of prior forecasts with actual outcomes, anticipate potential changes in the system and prepare or respond to changes by allocating resources accordingly. Several variables influence the projected VCBR census and are regularly reviewed for the purpose of this forecast. However, it is not possible to predict every variable that may either positively or negatively impact the SVP system and VCBR census outcomes with complete accuracy. An example of this is the COVID-19 pandemic which had a significant impact on the SVP system for fiscal years 2020 through 2021. As such, the DOC, DBHDS and the OAG agreed that data for those years should be used for the purpose of forecasting with caution. Based on the available data, this forecast suggests that, despite a slight reduction in the census numbers from FY 2020 to FY 2022, the VCBR census may continue to grow over the upcoming six years. Changes in the state responsible (SR) population of DOC inmates and limited community resources for SVP individuals who may be suitable for conditional release have historically contributed to this growth. In more recent years, trends such as the closing of Hiram Davis Medical Center, increasing medical needs in the aging SVP population and changes to the procedures for housing individuals being held on emergency custody orders (ECOs) are also being monitored for their impact on the census. Virginia continues to have the one of the highest rates of conditional releases from an SVP civil commitment facility in the country. Despite this, the lack of community resources and alternatives to secure confinement continue to contribute to the census and cost of VCBR. For more information, the reader is directed to the report submitted to the General Assembly dated October 1, 2020, “Program and Community Alternatives to Reduce SVP Civil Commitment". Investment in community-based resources would help to slow VCBR census growth, provide a continuum of treatment and supervision, and offer less costly alternatives to secure confinement. |