Virginia’s Pretrial Data Project was established in 2018 under the direction of the Virginia State Crime Commission as part of the Crime Commission’s broader study of the pretrial system in the Commonwealth.(*1) The purpose of the Project was to address the significant lack of data available to answer key questions regarding the pretrial process in Virginia. The Project was an unprecedented, collaborative effort among numerous state and local agencies representing all three branches of government. The Crime Commission’s study focused on a cohort of individuals charged with a criminal offense during a one-month period (October 2017). The work was well received by lawmakers, and the 2021 General Assembly (Special Session I) passed legislation (House Bill 2110 and Senate Bill 1391) directing the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission to continue this work on an annual basis. Virginia’s work with pretrial data collection has begun to receive national attention.

This year, the Sentencing Commission examined individuals with pretrial contact events during Calendar Year (CY) 2023. A contact event is the point at which an individual comes into contact with the criminal justice system is charged with a criminal offense, thus beginning the pretrial process. As in previous years, for individuals with more than one contact event during the calendar year, only the first event was selected; however, the defendant’s first contact event in a calendar year was excluded if it was identified as a pretrial outcome for an event that occurred during the previous calendar year. Individuals were tracked through disposition of the case or the end of the 15-month follow-up period, whichever came first. The Sentencing Commission adhered to the previously established data collection methods. Data for the Project was obtained from eight different data systems.(*2) Compiling the data into a unified dataset requires numerous iterations of matching, merging, and data cleaning to ensure accuracy when linking information from the respective data systems to each defendant in the cohort. More than 500 data elements were captured for each defendant, including demographics, charging details, criminal history records, pretrial release status, bond type and amount, court appearance by the defendant, new criminal arrest during the pretrial period, and final dispositions.

The Sentencing Commission’s data analysis, presented in this report, focuses on adult defendants whose contact event included a charge for a new criminal offense punishable by incarceration where a bail determination was made by a judicial officer (i.e., a magistrate or judge). Other defendants, such as those released on a summons, were not analyzed for this report. This report presents various descriptive findings for the selected defendants, their key characteristics, how they proceeded through the pretrial system, and outcomes. This report also compares several measures across multiple years of data now available. When examining pretrial outcomes, it is important to consider what factors or combination of factors may be associated with success or failure while on pretrial release. Empirically based risk assessment tools are commonly used to estimate the likelihood of success or failure in the community during the pretrial period. For the purposes of the Project, the Public Safety Assessment (PSA), a pretrial risk assessment tool developed by Arnold Ventures, is utilized. Using the PSA allows the Commission to calculate risk scores for all defendants in the cohort based on available automated data.

To provide a comprehensive account of defendants’ criminal histories both within and outside the Commonwealth of Virginia, the Commission has undertaken significant efforts to obtain out-of-state criminal history records from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The Commission first submitted data request in early 2023 and received the returned data from FBI in late 2024 for the CY2022 cohort. The Commission then established a protocol to standardize and analyze textual data from FBI records. It was found that about 30% of the defendants in the main CY2022 cohort data have out-of-state criminal history. In June 2025, the FBI Institutional Review Board approved the Commission’s request of out-of-state criminal history for CY2023 cohorts. However, due to administrative procedures at FBI, the Commission had not received returned data by the end of September. Federal government shutdown starting on October 1st further exacerbated the situation. Therefore, the Commission was not able to include such information in the CY2023 dataset.

This year, the Sentencing Commission conducted a special study to examine the association between pretrial services supervision and pretrial outcomes (failure to appear -FTA- or new criminal arrest -NCA- for jailable offense). Currently, 35 pretrial service agencies serve 116 of Virginia’s 133 cities and counties. The Commission utilized both descriptive statistics and advanced statistical methods to provide the findings about the pretrial services supervision and its association with failure to appear and new criminal arrest during the pretrial period.

Virginia’s Pretrial Data Project continues to serve as a valuable resource for policy makers, practitioners, and academics. Findings from the Commission’s ongoing analyses as well as other researchers may be used to inform policy and practice and provide a platform for discussion of pretrial matters in the Commonwealth today and in the years to come.

KEY FINDINGS

Presented below are key descriptive findings from the Commission’s analysis of CY2021- CY2023 pretrial data. The findings demonstrate year-to-year consistency, with emerging trends highlighted below.

• The vast majority of defendants are ultimately released from custody during the pretrial period. While approximately one in ten defendants were detained throughout the pretrial period during 2020 and 2021, the overall pretrial release rate has increased from 87.7% in CY2019 to 89.5% in CY2020, when the COVID pandemic began. The overall pretrial release rate has since declined to 87.2% in CY2023. CY2023 marked the first year that the overall release rate was lower than the pre-pandemic CY2019 level.

• Over half of defendants each year were released on a personal recognizance or unsecured bond. The percentage of defendants released on personal recognizance or unsecured bond decreased from 59.1% in CY2021 to 57.9% in CY2023.

• Overall, secured bond amounts at the time of release were consistent from CY2021 to CY2023. Secured bond amounts generally did not vary widely across sex, race, age, assigned counsel type, or year of release.

• About 46% of defendants were charged with a felony offense, while about 55% were charged with a misdemeanor or special class offense as the most serious offense in the contact event. Throughout CY2021-CY2023, the most common felony charge was a drug offense. Since CY2020, assault has been the most common misdemeanor charge.

• The pretrial release rate for defendants charged with felony offenses is lower than the release rate for those charged with misdemeanors. During CY2022 and CY2023, roughly 79% of individuals facing felony charges were released pretrial. Among those charged with felonies, individuals with felony charges for drugs, assault, burglary, kidnapping, or other crimes against a person were more likely to be detained throughout the pretrial period.

• When charged with a felony or violent offense, females were more likely than males to be released and Whites were released more often than Blacks. The defendants not assigned with court-appointed attorneys or public defenders were much more likely to be released than the defendants assigned with court-appointed attorneys or public defenders especially when they are charged with a felony or violent offense. It is important to note that many factors, including prior record, affect pretrial release rates.

• Of released defendants, based on the data (CY2021-CY2023), between 16.8% and 18.6% each year were ordered to receive supervision from a Pretrial Services Agency. A larger percentage of defendants placed under pretrial supervision requirements received a secured bond compared to those who were released but not placed under pretrial supervision.

• Across each year examined, a small percentage of released defendants were charged with failure to appear at court proceedings for the offense(s) in the contact event. The FTA rate decreased from 16.6% in CY2021 to 13.9% in CY2023; however, the rate remains higher than in CY2019 (12.6%).

• Similarly, a relatively small portion of released defendants were arrested during the pretrial period for an in-state offense punishable by incarceration. The new arrest rate decreased from a high of 23.5% in CY2020 to 18.6% in CY2023. The CY2023 new-arrest rate is lower than the rate observed during the pre-pandemic period (CY2019).

• During CY2021-CY2023, between 52% and 54% of defendants were convicted of at least one offense in the contact event (original or reduced charge). The conviction rate has been fairly consistent since CY2020.

• Public Safety Assessment (PSA) scores for both failure to appear (FTA) and new criminal arrest (NCA) were quite similar across the CY2021-CY2023 cohort groups. For both FTA and NCA measures, the largest share of defendants was classified as low risk, having a score of 1 or 2.

• Each year, defendants with higher PSA scores were less likely to be released than those with lower scores. A larger percentage of defendants classified as high risk (PSA scores of 5 or 6) were released in CY2021 than in recent years (CY2022-CY2023); this percentage has since constantly declined.

• The percentage of released defendants charged with failure to appear or who were arrested for a new in-state offense punishable by incarceration during the pretrial period increased as the defendants’ PSA scores increased, suggesting that the PSA may be a useful tool in pretrial release decision making.

• While overall rates for failure to appear and new in-state arrest have decreased since CY2020, the rate for new in-state arrest for individuals classified as high risk (PSA NCA scores of 5 or 6) has decreased markedly.

• Results of a sophisticated empirical study conducted by the Commission indicate that defendants who receive pretrial service supervision have lower rates of new FTA than those who did not receive it; this finding is highly statistically significant. On the other hand, the association between pretrial services supervision and new criminal arrest (new in-state offense punishable by incarceration) is found to be statistically insignificant.

However, when the analyses are focused on the released defendants whose assigned PSA score is 3 or higher, the statistical findings show that the likelihood of NCA for the defendants with pretrial services supervision is lower and highly statistically significant than those (PSA score of 3 or higher) without the supervision.

• The caution regarding this study is that those findings do not imply the distinctive and definite inferences about the Virginia pretrial service supervision because there would be qualitative and functional differences in the pretrial services in Virginia. In particular, this study only analyzed the subset of the entire pretrial defendants and the many potential unobservable factors, often difficult to operationalize, were not taken into account in this analysis.
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(*1) See Virginia State Crime Commission. (2021). Virginia Pretrial Data Project: Final Report.
(*2) Alexandria Circuit Court system completed switching back to the Court Case Management System in Virginia in the end of 2024. Therefore, the Commission did not make a separate data request to the Clerk of Alexandria Circuit Court.