Forecasts of persons confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are typically used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security oversees the forecasting process and as mandated by the General Assembly (see Appendix A, Legislative Directive), presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor and the Chairs of the House Appropriations Committee, the Senate Finance and Appropriations Committee, the House Courts of Justice Committee, and the Senate Courts of Justice Committee.

To produce the offender forecasts, the Secretary’s Office uses a consensus forecasting process that brings together policy makers, administrators, and technical experts from many state agencies across all branches of state government. The objective is to ensure that statistical models meet high technical standards while also providing key policy makers and administrators in the criminal justice system the opportunity to provide input into the forecast. See Virginia’s Offender Forecasting Process (Section I) for more about Virginia’s consensus forecasting, and Forecasting Methodologies (Section II) for more about the statistical modeling.

For more information about each population forecast, see their relevant sections:

• Section III, Adult local-responsible jail population
• Section IV, Adult state-responsible offender population
• Section V, Juvenile state-responsible direct care population
• Section VI, Juvenile local-responsible detention center population