HD78 - Washington, DC to Richmond Third Track Feasibility Study


Executive Summary:
The goal of this report, prepared by HDR Engineering, Inc. for the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation (DRPT) under a mandate of the Virginia General Assembly, is to review the feasibility of a third track in the Washington, D.C. to Richmond rail corridor owned by CSX Transportation (CSX). (See Figure 1) Consistent with the General Assembly mandate, this study only addresses the feasibility of building a third track adjacent to the existing CSX tracks. The Department believes, however, that a new approach to improving passenger rail service in this corridor may be appropriate. All potential options, including development of a new rail corridor should be considered before a final recommendation is made.

A preliminary minimum cost of $684 million, in 2006 dollars, has been estimated for the construction of the third track. This cost clearly underestimates the actual cost of improvements as it does not include several items with will add to the overall cost of the project. The following are some of the items that are not included in this cost estimate:

All cost estimates are provided in current 2006 dollars. Inflation will add significantly to the overall cost because the construction of improvements will be spread out over several years. For each year in which project construction is delayed, costs should be expected to increase by an average of 3.12% per year according to construction inflation forecasts provided by the Virginia Department of Taxation.

Right-of-way costs are not included. The study suggests that there maybe sufficient room within the existing CSX right-of-way to construct a third track, with only a few parcels totaling less than an acre having to be obtained. However, final engineering must be completed before the actual amount of right-of-way requirements can be determined.,

The estimated minimum cost also does not include costs associated with the relocation of utilities (principally fiber optic lines and petroleum pipelines) in the CSX right-of-way. Without detailed field surveys it is not possible to quantify the impacts on such utilities. Relocation of utilities could result in substantial costs and would have to be negotiated as part of the agreement to use the rail line.

The cost of electrification was estimated to be at least $953 million in 2006 dollars, which is in addition to the cost of the third track.

The improvements included in this estimate also do not include the construction of a third track in several key areas, including Ashland, Fredericksburg and the Long Bridge across the Potomac River. These three sections will require very expensive solutions to provide additional rail capacity while minimizing the impact on the surrounding communities. Improved passenger rail service can be provided in this corridor without a third track in these three locations, but these areas will become bottlenecks that will limit reliability and the capacity for additional future service growth.

This study does not calculate the level of or existence of public benefits that may result from these improvements. The evaluation of public benefits must be completed before a final determination of feasibility can be made. The Commonwealth and CSX will need to come to an agreement that clearly identifies and provides for a public benefit which includes the capability to provide expanded and significantly improved commuter and intercity passenger rail operations. The Commonwealth and CSX would also have to determine a cost sharing agreement since the improvements will benefit both passenger and freight rail service.

The findings of this study presented here are largely based on previously prepared studies and conceptual plans. Before allocating any funding in this corridor, this study recommends a comprehensive review of all alternatives in this corridor and preparation of preliminary engineering plans and cost estimates.

Assuming that further analysis determines that the third track or new rail corridor is feasible from a cost and public benefit perspective, there is a need for negotiation and execution amongst the involved stakeholders of the necessary governance agreements addressing design, construction, implementation schedule, ownership, liability and indemnification issues, access, operation and maintenance of the third track. DRPT highly recommends that outcome-based performance standards be developed for each significant issue to be agreed upon and for each step in implementing the strategy. These standards must be driven by realistic costs, schedules, deliverables, and performance measures that can be independently monitored, reported and audited by the Commonwealth and other participating parties on a regular basis.