RD329 - Report on the Offender Population Forecasts (FY2015 to FY2020)


Executive Summary:
Forecasts of persons confined in state and local correctional facilities are essential for criminal justice budgeting and planning in Virginia. The forecasts are used to estimate operating expenses and future capital needs and to assess the impact of current and proposed criminal justice policies. The Secretary of Public Safety and Homeland Security oversees the forecasting process and, as required by the Appropriation Act, presents updated forecasts annually to the Governor, the Chairmen of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees, and the Chairmen of the House and Senate Courts of Justice Committees.

To produce the offender forecasts, the Secretary's Office utilizes an approach known as "consensus forecasting." This process brings together policy makers, administrators, and technical experts from all branches of state government. The Technical Advisory Committee is composed of experts in statistical and quantitative methods from several agencies. While individual members of this Committee generate the offender forecasts, the Committee as a whole carefully scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards. The selected forecasts are presented to the Secretary's Work Group. The Work Group evaluates the forecasts and provides guidance to the Technical Advisory Committee. The Work Group includes deputy directors and senior managers of criminal justice and budget agencies, as well as staff of the House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees. Forecasts accepted by the Work Group then are presented to the Secretary's Policy Committee. Led by the Secretary, the Policy Committee reviews the various forecasts, making any adjustments deemed necessary to account for emerging trends or recent policy changes, and selects the official forecast for each offender population. The Policy Committee is made up of lawmakers, agency directors, and other top officials and includes representatives of Virginia's prosecutor, police, sheriff, and jail associations. Through the consensus process, a forecast is produced for each of the four major offender populations.

The forecasts, approved in September 2014, were based on all of the statistical and trend information known at the time that they were produced. While there is always a degree of uncertainty in forecasting, data issues have increased the level of uncertainty surrounding the adult offender forecasts this year. In June 2013, the Commonwealth switched to a new jail data system known as LIDS-CORIS. Conversion to the state's new jail data system was not seamless. While most issues with the new system now have been resolved, it is not clear that the jail data are complete, that all offenders have been categorized correctly, and that all adjustments made in past months have been correctly assigned. Verification of the data is ongoing. Thus, throughout the coming year, the offender populations will be closely monitored in order to identify any changes or shifts as quickly as possible.

Adult State-Responsible Inmate Population. The largest of the forecasted populations, the state-responsible inmate population includes offenders incarcerated in state prisons as well as state inmates housed in local and regional jails around the Commonwealth. After more than a decade of growth, the population declined each year from FY2009 through FY2012. Much of the decline during that period can be attributed to a significant drop in the number of offenders committed to the Department of Corrections (DOC). This shift was consistent with observed changes in arrest patterns, a decline in felony caseloads in circuit court, and reductions in the backlog of drug cases awaiting analysis at the Department of Forensic Science. Most recently, during the two-year period between June 30, 2012, and June 30, 2014, the number of state-responsible inmates grew by approximately 700, or 1.8%, to a population of 37,843. The rise in the inmate population is the result of a recent increase in the number of female offenders committed to prison and, for males, an increase in commitments together with longer sentences. Based on the approved forecast, the inmate population is projected to increase by an average of 0.8% per year to 39,666 inmates at the end of FY2020 (see table on page vii). This forecast is higher than the forecast presented to the Governor and General Assembly last year. As required by Appropriation language, the forecast has been disaggregated to identify the number of probation violators within the overall population who may be appropriate for punishment via alternative sanctions. By the end of FY2020, it is projected that the state-responsible population will include 1,315 technical probation violators (i.e., offenders who violated the rules of probation but have not been convicted of a new crime), approximately 53% of whom may be suitable for alternative sanctions.

Adult Local-Responsible Jail Population. The local-responsible jail population is defined as the number of persons confined in local and regional jails across the Commonwealth, excluding state and federal inmates and ordinance violators. Following substantial growth in FY2006 and FY2007, the average local-responsible jail population declined each succeeding year through FY2011. In FY2012, the average local-responsible jail population increased for the first time in five years. The upturn continued in FY2013, with the average population climbing by 3.3% to 19,992 for the fiscal year through May 2013. The growth in FY2012 and FY2013 was driven by the number of individuals in jail awaiting trial and those in jail with additional cases pending, as well as longer lengths-of-stay across most categories. Disaggregated figures and length-of-stay details for FY2014 are not presented in this report because verification of the new LIDS-CORIS data is not complete. Under the approved forecast, the local-responsible jail population is projected to grow by an average of 1.0% per year to 20,834 in FY2020 (see table on page vii). While there is always a degree of uncertainty in forecasting, data issues have increased the level of uncertainty this year, particularly with regard to the local-responsible jail population. Moreover, changes in forecasting methodology, considered necessary due to the data issues, mean that this year's forecast is not comparable to forecasts submitted in prior years.

Juvenile Correctional Center/Direct Care Population. Juvenile offenders committed to the state are held in facilities operated by the Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ) or they are placed in re-entry, community placement, or halfway house programs (*1); collectively, these make up DJJ's direct care population. The direct care population has been declining since FY2000. Some of the early decline may be attributed to a change in the minimum criteria for a juvenile to be committed to DJJ (from a felony or two Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications to a felony or four Class 1 misdemeanor adjudications) beginning July 1, 2000, as well as subsequent statutory changes explained below. These policy changes alone cannot explain the persistent downward trend in commitments. At court services units, the point of entry into the juvenile justice system, the total number of juvenile intake cases has declined for the tenth consecutive year. In addition, DJJ has implemented procedures that include the use of validated risk assessment instruments in numerous aspects of community and facility operations in order to reserve juvenile correctional beds for those who represent the greatest risk to public safety. In FY2014, the total direct care population averaged 599, a decrease of nearly 100 from the previous year. The forecast for the direct care population anticipates a continued decline through FY2018. Beginning in FY2019, however, this population is expected to level off. For FY2020, the average population is projected to be 405 juveniles (see table on page vii).

Juvenile Detention Home Population. The juvenile local-responsible population encompasses all juveniles held in local or commission-operated juvenile detention homes around the Commonwealth. The juvenile detention home population declined from an average of 1,061 in FY2007 to an average of 729 in FY2013. Lower numbers of intakes at court service units and procedures to reduce detention of low-risk juveniles have contributed to the downward trend. The population increased slightly to 735 in FY2014 due to longer lengths-of-stay. The average detention home population is projected to be 713 juveniles in FY2020 (see table on page vii.)
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(*1) DJJ operated halfway houses for the direct care population beginning in July 2012. Due to budget reductions, the halfway houses were closed in January 2014.