Section § 62.1-44.119:2 of the Code of Virginia directs the Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry and the Secretary of Natural and Historic Resources to convene a stakeholder advisory group (Group) that reviews “annual progress and make recommendations towards the implementation of the Commonwealth’s agricultural commitments" in the Phase III Chesapeake Bay Watershed Implementation Plan (WIP). The second enactment clause of Chapters 735 and 736 requires the development of “a year-to-year timeline for achieving specific metrics for the achievement of the Commonwealth's agricultural sector commitments, including the coverage of a sufficient portion of Chesapeake Bay cropland by nutrient management plans or the installation of a sufficient number of livestock stream exclusion practices, in the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load Phase III Watershed Implementation Plan. Such timeline shall include specific annual percentages for nutrient management plan and stream exclusion adoption to meet the requirements of the Phase III Watershed Implementation Plan. The year-to-year timeline for achieving specific metrics shall be used to determine reasonable progress per § 62.1-44.119:4 of the Code of Virginia, as created by this act... The first annual report for the Group shall be due on July 1, 2024, and include the timeline with specific metrics."

Over the last year, the Group has prioritized the development of the timeline and specific metrics for nutrient management plan development and the installation of livestock stream exclusion practices in order to meet the statutory deadline of July 1.

Determination of reasonable progress

Earlier this year, the Group discussed both the timeline for reporting best management practice implementation and the use of a tiered approach to determine if the Commonwealth met its WIP commitments. Both the timeline and the use of a tiered approach impact the review conducted by the Secretaries to determine if the progress made by July 1, 2025 is “sufficient to substantially reach the allocated goals by July 1, 2028."

Timeline for determining reasonable progress

The Group decided that all agricultural practices reported by September 1, 2027 should be considered in determining whether “reasonable progress" has been made in meeting the Commonwealth’s commitments in the Chesapeake Bay Phase III Watershed Implementation Plan. This timeline allows Virginia’s Soil and Water Conservation Districts (Districts), the Department, and other essential partners to provide information on the practices implemented and installed under their programs.

Tiered approach to determine if Commonwealth has met its WIP commitments

Section § 62.1-44.119:1 establishes a limited framework for how the Secretary of Agriculture and Forestry and the Secretary of Natural and Historic Resources are to determine if the Commonwealth has met its WIP commitments.

The Group refined the framework to more clearly define the steps utilized to make this determination. The steps are:

1. A review of the Commonwealth’s overall nutrient and sediment load reduction must be conducted to determine if those targets were met. If those reduction targets are met, then the Commonwealth has met its commitments as it relates to § 62.1-44.119:1 of the Code of Virginia.

2. If the Commonwealth’s overall nutrient and sediment load reduction targets were not achieved, a review of the nutrient and sediment load reduction targets for the agricultural sector must be conducted to determine if those targets were met. If the agricultural sector nutrient and sediment load reduction targets have been met, then the Commonwealth has met its commitments as it relates to § 62.1-44.119:1 of the Code of Virginia.

3. If the agricultural sector’s nutrient and sediment load reduction targets are not met, an examination of the specific metrics established for both nutrient management plan development and livestock stream exclusion implementation must be conducted to determine if those metrics were achieved. If the metrics are achieved, the Commonwealth has met its commitments as it relates to § 62.1-44.119:1 of the Code of Virginia.

In addition to examining the practices implemented and the load reductions that are achieved, the Group also decided that the levels of effort and commitment demonstrated by agricultural producers should be considered. Nitrogen load reductions are especially driven by the implementation and installation of structural practices; however, the high level of demand for the necessary materials and qualified contractors has led to routine delays of implementation and installation of two or more years after a producer applies for funding through the VACS Program. As such, there is a disconnect between when the agricultural producer makes a commitment to implement and install a practice and when the Commonwealth is shown to have achieved a load reduction from that practice. The progress shown in 2023 in reducing the Commonwealth’s nutrient loads is reflective of the funding and commitments made by producers in 2021.

Specific metrics for nutrient management plans and livestock stream exclusion practices

As part of the Agricultural Needs Assessment developed each year in accordance with § 10.1-2128.1, annualized targets are established for both annual and structural practices. Continuing that established process, annual targets have been developed for both nutrient management plans and livestock stream exclusion practices for FY2024, FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027. These targets are gradually increasing over each of the four years to reach the implementation targets.

Priorities for next progress report

Section § 62.1-44.119:2 requires the Group to “develop (i) a process to assist any operator of 50 or more acres of Chesapeake Bay cropland in developing a nutrient management plan that meets the requirements of the goals to be achieved by the target date and (ii) a plan for the stream exclusion program in the Chesapeake Bay watershed."

Over the next year, the Group will continue to discuss ways to encourage and expediate the development of nutrient management plans for producers and to increase the implementation rates of livestock stream exclusion practices. The recommendations developed during these discussions will provide additional direction and guidance to ensure the Commonwealth meets its WIP commitments.

The Group will also focus on examining additional mechanisms that capture practices whose lifespans have expired within the EPA Bay Model and voluntarily implemented or installed practices that do not utilize state or federal financial assistance. Reporting the data associated with practices that are out of modeled or contract lifespan and voluntarily implemented or installed practices are critical to the Commonwealth’s ability to meet its commitments.